The Chargers enter the hardest part of their schedule with a Sunday showdown against the Bills, who are 2-0 behind fantastic play from quarterback Josh Allen.
Here are a few reasons to be optimistic that LA will upset Buffalo to get their first win.
Struggling defense
The Bills have started the season 28th in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play allowed as they adjust to a new scheme under new coordinator Jim Leonhard. The defense has been particularly vulnerable against the pass, where they rank 30th in EPA/play allowed and have been shredded by Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown in two consecutive weeks. With Ladd McConkey fully practicing despite a rib injury, he should face little resistance to production. Buffalo is also only the third team in NFL
history to start 2-0 while giving up 30 or more points in both games, so the Chargers may be able to score often, if not early, to ease some of their troubles regarding the offense.
Historic precedent
Jacob Gibbs of the Beyond the Box Score podcast pointed out on Thursday that the Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel has been about as successful as the Jaguars and Bears were through the first two games of the Liam Coen and Ben Johnson eras, respectively. Those two offenses are now regarded as some of the best in the league and have raised the profiles of quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams to that of league-wide superstars. The McDaniel Chargers have actually been better at avoiding three-and-outs and have accrued a higher EPA/dropback and success rate on designed runs than either of those teams were in their first two games, but their -17.5 turnover EPA is nearly as much as the two of them accrued combined. Turnovers are generally volatile, suggesting LA should be able to get on track and that there's still hope they'll reach the heights fans expected when McDaniel was hired as offensive coordinator.
Run stoppers
Despite playing both running backs selected in the top ten of the draft in the last two years, the Chargers are currently 7th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 86.5 and are 8th in defensive EPA/rush and 6th in defensive rushing success rate. That will come in handy against 2025 rushing champion James Cook, who has 192 yards this season despite being held to 57 in Week 1 against Houston. Josh Allen is also a threat in the run game - he's third in the NFL among quarterbacks with 92 rushing yards and has already ran for four touchdowns this season. Keeping Buffalo in third-and-long situations will give LA a fair shot at winning Sunday's game.
Injury questions
That run defense might be especially useful if Buffalo is missing receivers DJ Moore and Keon Coleman, who are both questionable. Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury, while Coleman has an ankle injury. Head coach Joe Brady told the Buffalo media that they "still feel good" about some players being able to suit up on Sunday despite not practicing earlier in the week, so it's still possible that one or both of Moore and Coleman could suit up. If not, Buffalo will be down to Khalil Shakir, former Charger Joshua Palmer, rookie fourth-round pick Skyler Bell, and potential practice squad elevations Greg Dortch, Trent Sherfield, Ja'Mori Maclin, and Stephen Gosnell.
This article originally appeared on Chargers Wire: 4 reasons for optimism for Chargers against the Bills in Week 3
