The Chargers are back from bye and will face a banged-up Rams team as they continue to search for their first win of the season.
Here are a few reasons to be optimistic that Jim Harbaugh and company will win the cross-town matchup.
Third-down defense
For as talented as the Rams offense is, they have struggled for multiple seasons now to consistently convert on third down. They currently rank 28th in EPA/play on third and medium and 21st in EPA/play on third and long, according to Hawkblogger's team matchup data, whereas the Chargers defense is about league average in both situations at 15th and 16th, respectively. Chris O'Leary's unit is, however, sixth in the league, allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 31.08%. To keep Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua off the field
consistently, the Chargers will have to lean on those numbers and shorten drives.
Run game matchup
192 rushing yards from the combination of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum last week against the Raiders might give Chargers fans pause, but O'Leary's unit is actually schematically set up for success on Sunday. The Rams run man-blocking concepts on 52.6 percent of their handoffs, tops in the league this season, and rank 6th in the NFL in yards per carry on such concepts. The Chargers, however, have allowed the 5th-lowest success rate on man-concept runs and have been an above-average unit against 13 personnel, which the Rams have employed generously to get the run game going. Bottling up Williams and Corum would go a long way towards forcing those uncomfortable third-down situations where the Chargers should be able to thrive.
Returning stars
The Chargers desperately need a spark on offense, and it looks like they're finally getting some good injury news now that the bye is behind them. Tackle Joe Alt is off the injury report completely after a neck injury against the Seahawks and could slot in at left or right tackle, with rookie Travis Burke on the other side. Wide receiver Ladd McConkey has been a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday despite a concussion, generally a good sign that he will pass the league protocols before Sunday. Both had been playing at a high level before getting injured, even if Alt had been struggling with penalties, and should give the Chargers' offense a boost.
Disappointing pass rush group
Despite trading for Myles Garrett and luring Aaron Donald out of retirement, the Rams have only managed 10 sacks in 7 games this season. Garrett only made it through one game before going on injured reserve with a knee injury, however, and head coach Sean McVay said this week that Garrett will not return on Sunday. Defensive tackles Kobie Turner and Poona Ford both went on IR last week as well and will miss Sunday's game. Suddenly, a unit that looked like it would be among the scariest on the Chargers' schedule looks a fair bit less lethal, which, paired with Alt's return, could result in the cleanest protection Justin Herbert has gotten all year.
This article originally appeared on Chargers Wire: 4 reasons for optimism for Chargers against the Rams in Week 8
