The Los Angeles Rams are 2-3, but a new chart suggests that record doesn't tell the whole story.
Stick to the Model's "Fraud Meter" measures how many wins each team's record is hiding or faking over the rest of the season. Through Week 5, the Rams sit at the top of the board, nearly two wins better than a typical 2-3 team. Per Stick to the Model, the data looks at how good the team is right now with the players who are actually healthy, how they've played (and against whom) and their upcoming schedule. The model projects the Rams to finish 10-7.
🚨 NFL FRAUD METER - Week 5 🏈
— Stick to the Model (@StickToTheModel) October 14, 2026
Last year it had the 3-2 Rams as risers
They went 9-3 the rest of the way: pic.twitter.com/32Dx0sZPhN
The underlying numbers back that up. Los Angeles leads the NFL with 2,122
total yards and 1,538 passing yards, averaging 6.0 yards per play. The Rams' 37.9 yards per drive is the best mark in the league, and they convert 44.6% of their third downs, seventh-best.
So why the record? The yards haven't turned into enough points. The Rams are averaging 23.8 points per game, 14th in the league, and their 2.14 points per drive ranks 15th.
A few problems explain the gap.
Special teams has been a drag. Los Angeles is 5-of-9 on field goals (55.6%), the worst rate in the NFL. It's a big reason why they just replaced kicker Harrison Mevis with Blake Grupe. The offense also has to cover a lot of ground thanks to poor returns, starting drives at its own 27.2-yard line on average — fourth-worst in the league. Mistakes are piling up, too. The Rams have eight turnovers, including six interceptions, and have been flagged 42 times for 368 yards.
The offense is moving the ball better than almost anyone. If the Rams clean up the kicking, penalties and turnovers, the model says the wins should follow.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Chart says Rams are better than their 2-3 record
