The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, the BMW Championship, tees off on Thursday, Aug. 20, from Bellerive Country Club near St. Louis. Our Golfweek experts have locked in their best picks to win this weekend. Here's who we expect to sit atop the leaderboard when play ends on Sunday.
Follow along with all the action this week with Golfweek and USA TODAY Sports for a live leaderboard, golfer rankings and money list.
BMW Championship 2026 outright winner
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Adam Schupak: Sam Burns (+1600)
The combination of his approach play of late, his putting and overall run of form makes him the pick to keep Scottie from repeating as BMW champ.
David Dusek: Scottie Scheffler (+250)
Aside from the challenge of winning back-to-back PGA Tour events, give me one reason why Scottie
Scheffler isn't the clear man to bet this week in St. Louis. I'll help you: there aren't any. If Scheffler putts anywhere close to as well as he did at TPC Southwind, he'll win again and set up a chance to sweep the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a win at East Lake.
Todd Kelly: Xander Schauffele (+1800)
X is due. He tied for seventh last week, had a solo second at the Rocket, and he top-20'd in all four majors this season. He top-10'd at the BMW three years in a row from 2022 to 2024 but hasn't hoisted a trophy in 10 months. That ends this week.
Nick Stavas: Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
There's a belief in golf that if you keep putting yourself in contention, you're bound to win eventually. Most of the time, that's true, and that's exactly what Matusyama has been doing over the last month, as he enters this week coming off four straight top-10 finishes. I've picked him to win three weeks in a row and I'm going to keep going back to the well until I'm right.
Tim Schmitt: Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)
The fifth-ranked player in the whole world still only has one PGA Tour victory. Makes no sense, right? He's finished in the top 15 in each of his last seven starts. It's time for Tommy to break through and get that second trophy.
This article originally appeared on Golfweek: Golfweek experts reveal their picks for the BMW Championship
