The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield may not agree to a new contract before the start of the season, but one observer believes Mayfield will eventually get his big payday.
Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox projects that Mayfield will eventually sign a four-year, $215 million deal to remain a member of the Buccaneers.
"If Mayfield has another Pro Bowl-caliber season for Tampa, the Bucs will likely retain him—either with a new contract or via the franchise tag," writes Knox. "In three seasons with the franchise, the 31-year-old has made two Pro Bowls, delivered two division titles, and has passed for 12,237 yards and 95 touchdowns."
Mayfield is clearly one of the NFL's top quarterbacks and has proven he's a franchise quarterback. He ranked
second in the NFL in 2024 when he threw for 41 touchdowns, and he became just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 4,000 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and a 70% completion rate in a single season.
However, it's clear that Tampa Bay has hit a sort of ceiling in the Mayfield and Todd Bowles era. They missed the playoffs last season with an 8-9 record after losing the division tiebreaker to the Carolina Panthers. Furthermore, they've never posted better than a 10-7 record in Mayfield's three seasons, and they have failed to advance past the divisional round.
General manager Jason Licht and the organization may be waiting to see the results of this season before committing to a long-term deal with Mayfield. In other words, they may be tired of mediocrity and want a Super Bowl-contending team like the one Tom Brady fielded during his first couple of seasons in Tampa Bay.
With that being said, the statistics don't lie -- Mayfield is a franchise quarterback. It's going to be hard for Tampa Bay to find another quarterback through the draft and develop him to the point that he reaches Mayfield's production.
"Only Jared Goff has thrown more touchdown passes (101) over the last three seasons," writes Knox. "While Mayfield isn't quite an elite quarterback, he's the top signal-caller scheduled to be available in 2027. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t Laine), Mayfield wants a contract comparable to those of Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Brock Purdy. Barring a major step backward on the field, he should get it."
It's also worth noting that he's a locker room leader and one of the six team captains. It comes as the Buccaneers brace for their first season without their longest-tenured veterans, Lavonte David and Mike Evans.
We'll see how the 2026 season plays out for the Buccaneers, but if Tampa Bay can get back into the playoffs and Mayfield produces the way he normally does, there's little reason to believe the Buccaneers will allow him to walk while he's in the prime of his career.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Baker Mayfield predicted to sign big contract with Buccaneers
