Baker Mayfield hasn't given fantasy football managers much reason to trust him through the first two games of the season, and a matchup with the Minnesota Vikings isn't exactly the spot to expect that to change suddenly.
Mayfield enters Week 3 as FantasyPros' consensus QB21, putting him firmly outside the normal starting range in one-quarterback leagues. He's averaging just 12.4 fantasy points per game after scoring 11.6 in Week 1 and 13.2 against Cleveland last week.
The problem hasn't necessarily been one glaring weakness. Instead, Tampa Bay's entire offense has struggled to find consistency during its 0-2 start, and Mayfield has been part of that problem. He lost three fumbles in the season opener against Cincinnati before throwing an interception
in the Bucs' 23-19 loss to Cleveland.
Through two games, Mayfield has thrown for 398 yards with one passing touchdown and one interception. His legs have helped keep his fantasy production from completely bottoming out, adding 59 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that's not enough to make him a comfortable weekly starter right now.
He's still shown flashes of the quarterback Tampa Bay needs him to be. One of his best throws against Cleveland came late in the fourth quarter when he put the ball on Ted Hurst's hands just across the goal line. Hurst couldn't finish the difficult catch with a defender on his hip in the pouring rain, but Mayfield allowed his rookie receiver to win the rep.
That was followed by another example of the inconsistency that's plagued Tampa Bay. On the Bucs' final offensive play, Emeka Egbuka got into the end zone with his defender trailing, but Mayfield's fourth-down pass sailed beyond his reach. Tampa Bay turned the ball over on downs and dropped to 0-2, and things don't get any easier this week.
Brian Flores has once again built one of the NFL's most aggressive defenses in Minnesota. According to Pro Football Focus data cited by the Buccaneers, the Vikings have blitzed on 79.3% of their defensive snaps through two games, easily the highest rate in the league. Minnesota has turned that aggression into eight sacks while opening the season 2-0.
There is at least one reason to believe Mayfield could handle that pressure better than his recent fantasy numbers suggest. FantasyPros notes that he has historically performed well against the blitz, and his underlying accuracy numbers have been better than his overall fantasy production. Drops have also cost Mayfield an estimated 57 passing yards through two games.
That's enough to give him upside, but upside isn't the same thing as reliability.
Tampa Bay doesn't have one dominant receiving option commanding the passing game right now. Chris Godwin, Egbuka, Hurst, Cade Otton, and the recently returned Jalen McMillan give Mayfield a supporting cast with options. Still, nobody has emerged as the type of target fantasy managers can count on to elevate the quarterback's weekly ceiling consistently.
For managers in standard one-quarterback leagues, Mayfield belongs on the bench this week. FantasyPros currently has him at QB21, and his first two performances haven't provided enough production to justify starting him over quarterbacks with safer floors.
Superflex and two-quarterback leagues are different. Mayfield remains a viable QB2 because he's going to have the volume, and his willingness to run provides another path to fantasy points when the passing game isn't clicking. Fantasy managers need to understand the floor is lower than they'd like.
Mayfield is capable of making throws like the one he gave Hurst against Cleveland. He's also capable of following it with a miss like the final attempt to Egbuka. That inconsistency, combined with Tampa Bay's turnover problems and a difficult matchup against Flores' defense, makes it hard to trust him as a top fantasy option in Week 3.
The call: Sit Mayfield in one-quarterback leagues. In Superflex, he's a startable QB2, but expectations should remain tempered.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Should you start Baker Mayfield this week in fantasy football?
