The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will enter Cincinnati as underdogs Sunday, but that doesn't mean they're facing a mismatch. Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 points against a Tampa Bay team that has won five consecutive season openers.
River Wells of Bucs On SI
pointed out a few areas that could give the Bucs an opportunity to extend that streak, including Tampa Bay's rebuilt pass rush and Baker Mayfield's history against Cincinnati.Here are three reasons the Bucs have a legitimate chance to leave Cincinnati 1-0.
The Bucs finally have the personnel to make Joe Burrow uncomfortable
Trying to cover Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all afternoon is a losing proposition if Burrow has enough time to operate. That's why Tampa Bay's best chance of slowing Cincinnati may start well before the ball reaches either receiver.
The Bucs spent
the offseason adding to a defensive front that already featured Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby. First-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. gives Tampa Bay another threat off the edge, while A'Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nuñez-Roches and Al-Quadin Muhammad were brought in to strengthen the rotation.
Cincinnati's offensive line is the part of its offense Tampa Bay should attack. Wells noted that the Bengals struggled up front last season and brought back their starting group for 2026, while ESPN projected the unit among the bottom five in the NFL entering the season.
The Bucs don't have to completely stop Burrow. If Bain, Diaby, Vea and Kancey can consistently affect him before routes develop downfield, Tampa Bay can make life much easier on its secondary.
Tampa Bay has an experienced quarterback who won't be intimidated
A road opener against Burrow and the Bengals isn't an ideal place to break in a quarterback. Fortunately for the Bucs, they aren't doing that.
Mayfield has faced Cincinnati eight times during his career and owns a 6-2 record in those games. He's thrown 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions overall, including 16 touchdowns and four interceptions when playing the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Those games came with different rosters, so they aren't a prediction of what happens Sunday. They do provide evidence that Mayfield has been comfortable playing in Cincinnati.
Now he enters this matchup with Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, and Cade Otton around him. More importantly, Tampa Bay finally has its preferred offensive line back together.
If this turns into a game where Mayfield has to answer Burrow possession for possession, the Bucs have a quarterback who has been in that situation against Cincinnati before.
The Bucs have made fast starts a habit
Week 1 in years past has produced two very different trends for these teams. The Bengals are 2-5 in season openers since Zac Taylor became head coach in 2019. Even Cincinnati's two victories were tight: they beat Minnesota 27-24 in overtime in 2021 and Cleveland 17-16 last season.
Tampa Bay hasn't lost a season opener under Todd Bowles. Past results won't put points on the scoreboard Sunday, but preparation matters when teams are playing their first meaningful football in months. Tampa Bay has consistently found ways to come out of the offseason ready to win immediately, while Cincinnati has repeatedly needed more time to get going.
Against an offense as dangerous as the Bengals', the Bucs can't afford to spend the first quarter finding themselves. Their recent Week 1 history gives them reason to believe they won't have to.
Cincinnati has the star power and home-field advantage, but Tampa Bay has a formula that can work. Pressure Burrow before Chase and Higgins can take over, protect Mayfield, and force the Bengals to play from the opening whistle.
Do those things, and the Bucs won't need much of an upset to leave Cincinnati with their sixth straight Week 1 victory.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: 3 reasons the Bucs could spoil the Bengals’ Week 1 opener
