According to PFF’s latest playoff probability graphic, Tampa Bay’s chances have fallen dramatically following a 0-3 start. That is the price of spending September digging a hole, especially after the Bucs entered the season expecting to compete for another NFC South title. History is not particularly encouraging either. Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule, only one team had recovered from 0-3 to reach the playoffs entering this season: the 2025 Houston Texans. Tampa Bay now has to attempt something that almost never happens.
The strange part is that the NFC South has given the Bucs a chance to recover from their terrible start. Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta are all just 1 and 2, meaning Tampa Bay is only one game behind every other
team in the division despite being the NFL’s only winless NFC team. That is why Sunday against Green Bay already feels enormous, because falling to 0 and 4 would make an already difficult path significantly worse, particularly with Baker Mayfield sidelined for at least three games with a dislocated throwing thumb. Tampa Bay then travels to Dallas on a short week before facing Pittsburgh. Jalon Daniels will have to navigate the most important stretch of the season before making his fourth NFL appearance.
The Bucs also cannot continue playing the way they have and expect the division standings to save them. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in EPA per play offensively and 23rd in explosive play rate. Through two games, the defense ranked 17th in EPA per play while missing 22 tackles. Those problems carried into Minnesota, where the offense produced only 243 net yards and allowed six sacks. There is enough talent here to make a run. The division is still within reach, and 14 games remain. But Tampa Bay has already burned through most of its margin for error.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Bucs have put their playoff hopes in serious danger
