The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have built their offense around the run over the past two weeks, but Sunday's matchup against the Chicago Bears could force Baker Mayfield to lean more on his wide receivers, especially if Emeka Egbuka returns to the lineup.
Tampa Bay has attempted just 14 passes over its last two games, completing seven for 64 yards and one touchdown while rushing for a combined 582 yards. Those performances came under unusual circumstances, however, as the Buccaneers held a 33-6 halftime lead against Carolina before playing through heavy rain during their 16-0 victory over Atlanta.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Chicago has allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt, ranking 30th in the NFL, along with a league-high 13.1 yards per completion.
The Bears have also surrendered 17 passing plays of at least 30 yards, the most in the league, giving Tampa Bay opportunities to attack downfield if its passing offense can find some consistency.
However, Chicago ranks fourth in defensive success rate against passing plays at 61.2% and also ranks fourth in generating pressure on 48.3% of its blitzes. That combination challenges Mayfield, who has completed just 43.5% of his passes under pressure this season and averages 4.4 yards per attempt in those situations.
Emeka Egbuka: Start as a WR3
Egbuka has missed Tampa Bay's last two games while dealing with concussion and foot injuries, but he returned to full practice Thursday after sitting out Wednesday. His availability remains important for an offense that has struggled to generate passing production, especially as Mayfield continues to manage a right thumb injury.
The second-year receiver has produced inconsistently, recording 13, 38 and 48 receiving yards in his three appearances with Jalon Daniels. His three games with Mayfield earlier this season produced 63, 16 and 62 yards, but his involvement in the passing game suggests he could produce more if Tampa Bay increases its passing volume.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Egbuka commanded target shares of 26.7%, 15.4%, and 28.6% in his three games with Mayfield, showing he can remain a key part of the offense when the Buccaneers throw. His target share rose to 36% and 39% in his final two appearances before the injury, further underscoring his importance to Tampa Bay's receiving corps.
Accuracy remains a concern, as 22.4% of Egbuka's targets have been classified as inaccurate, the third-highest rate among receivers with more than 25 targets. However, Chicago has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four consecutive games, and its vulnerability to explosive plays creates opportunities for Egbuka to produce even if the Buccaneers maintain a run-first approach.
Egbuka should be considered a WR2/WR3 if cleared to play, with additional upside if Chicago forces Tampa Bay into a more balanced offensive game plan.
Chris Godwin: Risky flex
Godwin has struggled to produce consistently this season, averaging a career-low 9.0 yards per reception and failing to finish higher than WR40 in any game, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
The veteran has remained involved in Tampa Bay's passing offense, commanding a team-high 26.7% target share when Egbuka is off the field. However, the Buccaneers' limited passing volume has prevented that involvement from translating into dependable fantasy production, particularly over the past two games.
Egbuka's return could reduce Godwin's opportunities, though Chicago's defensive tendencies create a more favorable environment for receivers than Tampa Bay saw during its recent run-heavy performances. The Bears have allowed explosive passing plays all season, but Godwin's shorter average reception means he'll likely need consistent targets to capitalize on the matchup.
Godwin got a veteran rest day Thursday and wasn't listed with an injury. He remains a WR4 with flex consideration in deeper PPR leagues, but his inconsistent production makes him difficult to trust in standard formats.
Ted Hurst III: Sit with deep-league upside
Hurst has established himself as one of Tampa Bay's downfield receiving options, averaging 16.2 air yards per target, according to Sharp Football Analysis. His vertical role could be valuable against a Chicago defense that has allowed 17 completions of at least 30 yards, particularly if the Buccaneers need explosive plays to keep pace with the Bears.
Hurst has also maintained a significant role in the passing offense during Egbuka's absence, running a route on 94% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks over the past two games. However, that involvement has not translated into reliable fantasy production because the Buccaneers have attempted so few passes.
Egbuka's potential return could further limit Hurst's opportunities, making him difficult to trust in standard fantasy lineups despite the favorable matchup for downfield receivers. He should remain on the bench in most leagues, though his ability to generate explosive plays gives him upside in deeper formats where managers need a high-risk option.
Tez Johnson: Sit with deep-league upside
Johnson has also benefited from Egbuka's absence, running routes on 94% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks over the past two games while maintaining a downfield role in the passing offense.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Johnson averages 20.1 air yards per target, giving him the potential to generate substantial yardage on limited receptions. That usage could be especially valuable against Chicago, which has allowed the league's highest yards-per-completion average and struggled to prevent explosive passing plays.
However, Johnson faces the same concerns as Hurst, with Tampa Bay's limited passing volume making it difficult for secondary receivers to establish consistent fantasy production. Egbuka's return would also add competition for snaps and targets, potentially reducing Johnson's involvement after he saw increased opportunities during the receiver's absence.
Johnson remains a sit in standard leagues, although his downfield usage gives him deep-league upside for managers seeking a potential big-play contributor.
Week 9 fantasy recommendations
Tampa Bay's passing offense has produced very little over the past two games, but Chicago's scoring ability and vulnerability to explosive passes could create opportunities largely absent against Carolina and Atlanta. Egbuka offers the best combination of target share and upside, while Godwin, Hurst, and Johnson remain dependent on the Buccaneers increasing their passing volume.
Fantasy managers should monitor Egbuka's final injury designation before Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, particularly because the late start leaves fewer replacement options if he cannot play.
This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: Fantasy football Week 9: Should you start Buccaneers wide receivers?
