The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2026 season carrying championship expectations, and one of The Athletic’s projection models views them as the NFL team most likely to reach the top of the mountain.
Austin Mock’s model projects Baltimore to win 10.9 games, gives the Ravens a 73% chance of reaching the playoffs, and assigns them an NFL-best 7.4% probability of winning Super Bowl LXI. Buffalo has a slightly higher playoff probability at 73.4%, but its 6.6% championship probability trails Baltimore. The Ravens’ combination of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a potentially improved defense under first-year head coach Jesse Minter provides a high ceiling. The model also gives Baltimore an advantage in the AFC North, although Cincinnati remains close
enough to make the division a legitimate two-team race.
Something to monitor: Philadelphia is the projected favorite in the NFC East. The Eagles’ 10.4 projected victories, 63% playoff probability, and 5.5% Super Bowl odds lead the division.
The Ravens Wire recently sat down with Mock to discuss why his model favors Baltimore, how Jackson affects the entire roster, and whether the offensive line could become the Ravens’ fatal flaw. Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB, and other sports.
What separates the Ravens from every other contender?
Your model gives Baltimore the NFL’s highest Super Bowl probability at 7.4%. What does it see in the Ravens that separates them from every other contender?
“The Ravens are one of the more well-balanced teams in the AFC. Of course, there is an MVP-level quarterback in Lamar Jackson, so that’s a pretty good place to start. But when you add Jesse Minter as head coach and defensive play caller, I think that raises the bar for the defense, which really struggled last year.
“Pairing a much better defensive scheme with Trey Hendrickson, there is no reason both the offense and defense can’t be top-10 units this year.”
Why Baltimore moves ahead of Buffalo in the playoffs
Buffalo has a slightly higher playoff probability, but Baltimore has better Super Bowl odds. Why does the Ravens’ outlook improve relative to Buffalo once the postseason begins?
“It comes down to the schedule. The model actually sees the Bills as the better team, but the Ravens have an easier schedule and don’t have a team of the Patriots’ quality gunning for the division.
“That means the Ravens are more likely to get the No. 1 seed and home playoff games. While the Bills are more likely to make the playoffs, the higher chances of getting home playoff games push the Ravens above them for making a deeper postseason run.”
How much does Baltimore’s outlook depend on Lamar Jackson?
How much of Baltimore’s projection is driven by Lamar Jackson, and how significantly would the outlook change if he performed at something below an MVP level?
“I don’t want to say it’s everything, but it’s pretty close. Lamar is an MVP-level quarterback, and he’s able to make life easier for his teammates with his elite play. This extends to Derrick Henry, the pass catchers and the offensive line.
“If he’s not playing at an MVP level, I’m concerned about whether the Ravens have enough talent on offense to compete at the top of the AFC. They’ll still be a good team if he’s performing like the 10th-best quarterback in the NFL, but I’m not sure they’re considered a Super Bowl contender.”
Is the offense, defense, or overall roster driving the projection?
Does the model project Baltimore as a championship favorite because of its offense, its defense, or the overall balance and depth of the roster?
“I definitely think it’s the whole roster, and that extends to the coaching staff. I mentioned that I think Minter can raise the level of this defense, and the defensive line is stacked with Hendrickson and Nnamdi Madubuike.
“On offense, Lamar and Derrick Henry can still terrorize defenses in the run game. If Lamar is healthy, that’s going to open up their passing game.”
Accounting for two new coordinators
How does the model account for the Ravens’ transition to Jesse Minter and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle?
“The model has the ability to take into account coaching changes, and I’ve mentioned that I think Minter is one of the better defensive minds in the game, so that’s a plus.
“The real unknown is Doyle. He’s gotten a ton of praise, but there really is no data on him as a play caller, so there’s uncertainty. The praise is nice to hear, but I can’t confidently say one way or the other how the scheme and play calls will play out.”
Baltimore’s greatest potential weakness
What is the greatest potential weakness that could prevent Baltimore from reaching the Super Bowl?
“I think it’s the offensive line. Lamar dealt with injuries last year, so you definitely want to keep him upright. But with Ronnie Stanley getting up there in age and Vega Ioane slated to start as a rookie, there are plenty of possible outcomes with this unit.
“Of course, Lamar can make their lives easier with his legs, but if they aren’t up to par in the run game or pass protection, I can’t see this team getting to the Super Bowl. Lamar is special, but a poor offensive line is a hard thing to overcome.”
Why Baltimore holds the AFC North advantage
The Ravens are projected for 10.9 wins, while Cincinnati is at 10.3. What ultimately gives Baltimore the advantage in the AFC North?
“I just have more faith in the Baltimore defense. The Bengals got better on defense in the second half of last year after a horrid start. They also added Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe in free agency.
“Maybe those guys become the difference-makers and propel this unit into a top-10 defense, but that’s a little hard for me to see considering how poor they were at the beginning of last season. Ultimately, the Ravens probably have a slightly worse offense — but still a good one — while the Bengals’ defense has a ways to go to catch the Ravens.”
AFC North projections
Who would be favored in a Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl?
If the Ravens and Eagles met in the Super Bowl, which team would the model favor today — and why?
“Right now, my model would favor the Ravens. It’s close, but they’d get the nod almost exclusively because of Lamar Jackson and the ceiling of this Ravens offense.
“Now, I will say that if these two teams meet in the Super Bowl, that probably means Sean Mannion and Jalen Hurts are hitting it off and the Eagles’ offense is pretty good. In that scenario, the Eagles would probably be favored if they were to make the Super Bowl.
“But right now, before the season starts, I give the Ravens the slightest edge.”
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This article originally appeared on Ravens Wire: Ravens earn NFL’s best Super Bowl odds in The Athletic's projection model
