The Baltimore Ravens are preparing for Thursday Night Football against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the statistical comparison reveals just how difficult their Week 9 assignment could become. Jacksonville enters the matchup at 5-2, averaging 28 points per game while allowing just 15.9, the NFL's second-best scoring defense. Baltimore, meanwhile, has fallen to 4-4 following three consecutive losses and will turn to undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano for his first NFL start.
The Ravens average 22.4 points and 338.6 total yards per game, ranking 19th and 15th, respectively. Jacksonville ranks fifth in scoring and 10th in total offense, averaging 350.3 yards per contest.
However, the most intriguing numbers involve two areas that could determine whether
Baltimore can remain competitive: Jacksonville's dominant rushing defense and its vulnerable pass coverage.
Derrick Henry faces the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense
The Ravens rank sixth in rushing offense, averaging 133.5 yards per game, but they'll face a Jaguars defense allowing an NFL-low 77.4 rushing yards per contest. That creates a significant challenge for offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who must establish Derrick Henry without placing excessive responsibility on Fagnano.
Jacksonville's interior defense could look different Thursday after starting defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton suffered a season-ending injury against Indianapolis. Losing Hamilton, one of the Jaguars' most important interior defenders, could create opportunities for Baltimore to move the ball up the middle.
Henry rushed for 53 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries against Buffalo. The Ravens will likely need a more consistent rushing attack to keep Fagnano out of obvious passing situations.
Joe Fagnano faces a vulnerable Jaguars pass defense
Jacksonville's defensive statistics reveal an interesting contrast. Despite ranking second in scoring defense, the Jaguars allow 253.9 passing yards per game, 29th in the NFL. Baltimore has opportunities to exploit that weakness, but the challenge is doing so with an inexperienced quarterback who completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble in Sunday's 36-10 loss to Buffalo.
Doyle must balance attacking Jacksonville's secondary with protecting Fagnano, who is also managing an ankle injury. Quick passes, play-action and designed touches for Zay Flowers could help create manageable opportunities without requiring the rookie to consistently challenge Jacksonville downfield.
The Jaguars also lost starting safety Eric Murray to a season-ending injury, creating another potential adjustment in their defensive coverage.
Jacksonville holds significant scoring and third-down advantages
The biggest statistical difference between these teams is scoring efficiency. Jacksonville averages 28 points per game compared with Baltimore's 22.4, while allowing 9.5 fewer points per contest. The Jaguars also convert 48.2% of their third-down opportunities, ranking third in the NFL. Baltimore converts 39.2%, ranking 14th.
Those differences could matter most if the Ravens struggle to sustain drives. Trevor Lawrence has Jacksonville operating efficiently, and Baltimore cannot afford to repeatedly give the Jaguars favorable field position or additional possessions.
The Ravens have allowed 25.4 points per game, ranking 22nd, while surrendering 228.3 passing yards per contest.
Ravens must overcome statistical disadvantages
Jacksonville holds the advantage in five of the seven major statistical categories entering Thursday's matchup. Baltimore's two advantages are rushing offense and passing yards allowed, although those figures don't guarantee success against the Jaguars.
For the Ravens, the formula must include establishing Henry, protecting Fagnano, creating turnovers, and preventing Jacksonville from controlling possession.
The Jaguars have the more productive offense and a considerably stronger scoring defense, but injuries to Hamilton and Murray create opportunities Baltimore must exploit. The Ravens and Jaguars will kick off Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium, with the game streaming nationally on Amazon Prime Video.
This article originally appeared on Ravens Wire: Ravens vs. Jaguars: Statistical breakdown, key matchups for Week 9
