Crunch time has come early. The Jacksonville Jaguars won't make life easy for the Baltimore Ravens. That seems certain. Liam Coen has helped turn Trevor Lawrence into a more dangerous quarterback, while his defense has developed into one of the league's toughest units against the run.
That's a difficult combination for any opponent, but especially for a Ravens teamthat will have to find answers without Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have turned to Joe Fagnano, and they'll have to approach this matchup differently than they would with their starting quarterback.
Their usual offensive formula won't work against a defense that has consistently shut down opposing ground games. Thursday night will demand discipline, creativity, and a willingness to win
in areas that haven't always received enough attention.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is coming off a 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts and has established itself as one of the AFC's more dangerous teams. Baltimore needs a much more complete performance than it delivered against the Buffalo Bills. This one deserves a primetime spotlight and a standalone game. Here are four factors that could determine whether the Ravens can keep their season from slipping further away.
Can the Ravens gain traction in the rushing attack?
With Jackson and Huntley unavailable, it seems unlikely that Baltimore could get much rushing production from the quarterback position. That puts more on Derrick Henry, who hasn't topped 100 rushing yards since Week 5 and has surpassed that mark only twice this season.
Unfortunately, Jacksonville presents one of the toughest possible matchups. The Jaguars have allowed just 542 rushing yards through seven games, averaging 77.4 per contest. They haven't allowed an individual rusher to reach 100 yards, and only three opponents — the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans — have managed to reach 100 rushing yards as a team.
Henry will need help from the offensive line and Justice Hill. If Baltimore cannot establish the ground game, Jacksonville can devote even more attention to pressuring an inexperienced quarterback.
Can Baltimore prevent Trevor Lawrence from picking apart its zone coverage?
Trevor Lawrence has become increasingly comfortable in Coen's offense, and his numbers against zone coverage worry Baltimore. According to the statistics provided by Stat Rankings, Lawrence owns a 118.7 passer rating against zone defenses. Athlon Sports, citing ESPN data, also reported that he completed 78% of his passes against zone coverage over the six games preceding Jacksonville's matchup with Indianapolis.
Lawrence followed that up by completing 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts. Indianapolis may not have provided the toughest test, given their circumstances, but Lawrence took advantage of the opportunities presented to him.
Baltimore's secondary has surrendered 1,826 passing yards this season, averaging 228.3 per game. The Ravens cannot let Lawrence operate comfortably underneath zone coverage, find open windows, and methodically move the chains. Communication, tackling, and tighter coverage will be essential to making him work for every completion. Saying that is one thing. Doing it is another. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
How well can an inexperienced Joe Fagnano protect the football?
Jacksonville's defense has recorded 15 sacks through seven games, averaging just over two per contest. The Jaguars have also intercepted nine passes, trailing only the Green Bay Packers (10) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers(12) in that category.
That's a difficult combination for Fagnano. He completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards against Buffalo, threw an interception, and lost a fumble after being thrust into action.
Fagnano doesn't need a spectacular performance for Baltimore to have a chance. He needs to protect the football, take what the defense gives him, and avoid forcing throws. The Ravens must establish the running game and keep him out of obvious passing situations where Jacksonville can unleash its pass rush.
Will the deciding play come from the special teams unit?
Special teams could become especially important. The question is how important? Rasheen Ali and LaJohntay Wester combined for 218 kickoff return yards on eight attempts against Buffalo, with Ali producing a 59-yard return. That kind of field-position advantage could be valuable again.
Tyler Loop is headed to injured reserve, leaving Jake Moody to handle the kicking responsibilities. Moody will have to deliver when opportunities arise. A missed kick could prove costly in a close game, while a clutch field goal might be the difference between extending Baltimore's losing streak and escaping with a victory.
Jacksonville has its own special teams advantages. Ameer Abdullah leads the Jaguars with 406 kickoff return yards on 14 attempts. Kicker Cam Little is 4-of-6 from beyond 50 yards, with a long of 60. Punter Logan Cooke averages 47.8 yards per punt and 43.7 net yards, with 10 punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Cooke's ability to flip the field could make life even more difficult for Baltimore's offense.
Baltimore has little margin for error.
Jacksonville has the defensive personnel to challenge Baltimore's running game, an offense that can exploit coverage mistakes, and special teams that can influence field position. The Ravens cannot afford to give the Jaguars easy opportunities.
Protecting the football, controlling the ground game, and winning the field-position battle are essential. Baltimore doesn't need a perfect performance, but it needs a disciplined one if it hopes to end its losing streak.
This article originally appeared on Ravens Wire: Ravens vs. Jaguars: 4 factors that could decide Thursday's game
