The Auburn Tigers will try to pull off another upset on Saturday when they travel to Oxford to face the No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels in Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium
Earlier this week, we examined several factors that could lead Auburn to struggle with the Rebels. Today, we take a more positive approach by focusing on how Auburn could sneak away from the Magnolia State with a win.
Ole Miss has enjoyed more recent success than Auburn, but the two teams are more similar than most think. Auburn and Ole Miss rank similarly in several categories, including points allowed, yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, third-down conversions, and time of possession.
However, roster makeup is one reason Auburn is viewed as a double-digit underdog
to Ole Miss on Saturday. Both rosters boast experienced players, but Ole Miss has built a strong foundation by landing experienced Power Four players through the transfer portal while Auburn is working to build culture under first-year head coach Alex Golesh.
However, the similarities in the stat column could make this game closer than experts expect. Here are five factors that could lead to an Auburn upset of the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday.
Byrum Brown gets back in rhythm
Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown passed for 100 yards and rushed for 100 yards in two straight games before the Tigers' recent loss to LSU. He could get back on track this weekend against Ole Miss' defense, which ranks No. 12 in the SEC in pass defense and No. 16 in the SEC in rushing defense.
Will Byrum Brow be an instrumental piece in an Auburn win on Saturday?
Kewan Lacy's injury negatively impacts Ole Miss' run game
Ole Miss will be without star running back Kewan Lacy on Saturday, which could be a factor against Auburn. Ole Miss' backup, Mahki Frazier, has just 87 fewer rushing yards than Lacy, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will also use his legs.
Auburn ranks No. 14 in the SEC in run defense, but finds success when it limits opponents' run game. The highest output an opposing running back has produced in Auburn wins this season is 88 yards. Could the trend continue on Saturday?
Auburn wins the turnover battle
Turnovers were a key factor in Ole Miss' loss to Texas last Saturday, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing a season-high three interceptions. On the flip side, Auburn has not turned the ball over in two weeks.
If Auburn ends every drive with a kick and finds ways to convert Ole Miss turnovers into points, it could help them pull off a win.
Auburn wins the time of possession battle
Auburn and Ole Miss have held the ball the least compared to their SEC counterparts, which could benefit Auburn. Ole Miss is dead last in time of possession, averaging 26:41 per game, while Auburn ranks No. 15, holding the ball just nine seconds longer.
If Auburn can grab more meaningful possessions, it could lead to a win.
Auburn moves the chains on Ole Miss' defense
Auburn and Ole Miss are similar in third-down success, with Ole Miss converting 45% of its attempts and Auburn converting 43%. However, there is a wide gap in how many third-down conversions their defenses allow. Auburn's opponents convert 35% of their third-down attempts, while Ole Miss' opponents convert 41%.
Auburn must extend drives against Ole Miss to have a chance to win on Saturday.
Taylor Jones is the lead writer for Auburn Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) and BlueSky. FollowAuburn Wire on X andFacebook.
This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Five reasons why Auburn football will beat Ole Miss on Saturday
