Texans Wire's Final Record Predictions: Is Houston the team to beat in the AFC?

Sunday marks the start of a hopefully better era at Reliant Stadium with the Houston Texans taking over as the face of the AFC.

The Texans are set to open the 2026 NFL season at home on Sunday afternoon against the Buffalo Bills, a game which Houston could have implications on the seeding in the AFC.

Although they didn't win the division title, the Texans secured a 12-win record, marking the most wins since 2012 and the second-most wins in a single season in franchise history. This marks the fourth season for C.J. Stroud as he plans on taking the year in without a contract. Even if he's only slightly jumped ahead, the Texans defense should remain the elite standard in the league, pushing Houston back to double-digit victories.

Since 2019, Houston

has been the Achilles' heel of Josh Allen's regular-season success, winning four straight games at home over the former MVP. Over the past two years, the games have been close, but a game-winning field goal in 2024 and eight sacks last fall were the difference between a win and a loss.

And Allen knows this is the one game that could keep him from making a run toward the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The winner of this game has the inside track to hosting throughout the postseason. And a loss could mark the start of a season to forget.

With Week 1 here, let's lock in our predictions for the 2026 season.

Week 1: vs. Buffalo Bills

Until they do it, the Bills can't get past the Texans. Even if they end up going further in the postseason, Josh Allen can never get in a groove to guide his team to a win. That won't happen on Sunday as Houston kicks off the year undefeated.

Verdict: Texans 27, Bills 17 (1-0)

Week 2: vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati might be one of the more improved teams in 2026. The defense could end up being a reason to believe that Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are headed back to the postseason. Still, the Bengals are known for slow starts. That shows up in Week 2.

Verdict: Texans 24, Bengals 10 (2-0)

Week 3: At Indianapolis Colts

Houston has been winning at Lucas Oil Stadium since the start of the rebuild. Daniel Jones back or not, it's another year wth the same result.

Verdict: Texans 27, Colts 14 (3-0)

Week 4: vs. Dallas Cowboys

This should be a shootout. Which team prevails between a high-powered passing attack under Dak Prescott and a stout defense headlined by Will Anderson Jr.? Defense wins championships and it wins at home over the team from up north.

Verdict: Texans 21, Cowboys 16 (4-0)

Week 5: At Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is still rebuilding as it enters Year 1 of the Robert Saleh era. Cam Ward might be slightly improved, but the offensive line, defensive front and secondary still have questions. There are rumors that All-Pro Jeffery Simmons could be traded at the deadline this season. Does that seem like a team ready to upset a conference title contender? A victory tune is sung in the Music City.

Verdict: Texans 31, Titans 13 (5-0)

Week 6: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game)

Across the pond, the Texans still overpower their biggest rival. It's a close one, but Ka'imi Fairbairn is the difference-maker. A game-winning field goal as time expires seals it.

Verdict: Texans 20, Jaguars 17 (6-0)

Week 7: vs. New York Giants

There's always one game where Houston doesn't wake up on Sunday and struggles. Last season, it was against Las Vegas, though that franchise was trying to get the No. 1 overall pick. This season, the Giants are trying to set the tone with Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers and the return of Cam Skattebo. Give me the upset at home as Houston preps for the bye week.

Verdict: Giants 26, Texans 20 (6-1)

Week 8: Bye Week

The Texans always win the bye week under DeMeco Ryans. If they lose it, there's hell to pay.

Verdict: DeMeco wins (6-1)

Week 9: At Los Angeles Chargers

Houston's taken down Justin Herbert and the Bolts the past three times in the regular season and playoffs. This is one game that Jim Harbaugh has circled since the schedule was released. With new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel at the helm, Hebert shows up at home, creating a losing streak for the Texans entering November.

Verdict: Chargers 23, Texans 17 (6-2)

Week 10: At Cleveland Browns

What's the best remedy to get right for a team on a losing streak? Playing a team whose fan base continues to boo its quarterback when he takes the field might just be what the doctor ordered. Deshaun Watson still can't get past his former team after five seasons as he prepares for A.C.230 (After Cleveland and $230 million) life. Texans win big.

Verdict: Texans 31, Browns 7 (7-2)

Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)

I initially picked this to be a Houston loss at home, but that was before finding out this would be the H-Town rivalry game. That means the crisp jersey that has won over the city will be debuted in front of the H-Town faithful. There's no way they're dropping this one.

Verdict: Texans 27, Colts 17 (8-2)

Week 12: vs. Baltimore Ravens

The same logic used for Buffalo is used here. Until the Texans get past the Ravens with a healthy Lamar Jackson under center, it's hard to believe they can get it done. It's close, but Baltimore pulls it out.

Verdict: Ravens 24, Texans 20 (8-3)

Week 13: at Pittsbiurgh Steelers (SNF)

The Steelers moved off a defensive-minded, walking 10-7 coach for an offensive-minded, walking 10-7 coach. It's a new year but the same results for Pittsburgh against Houston.

Verdict: Texans 28, Steelers 14 (9-3)

Week 14: At Washington Commanders

The Commanders should be improved with a healthy Jayden Daniels at quarterback, plus they brought in Stefon Diggs to help in the passing game. Houston's defense should still be the difference in this game, but since we respect Daniels on this site, we'll say the Texans win by six instead of five.

Out of respect, of course.

Verdict: Texans 23, Commanders 17 (10-3)

Week 15: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

With a win, the Texans should feel locked in for a playoff spot. This is a back-and-forth battle, but it's hard to envision anyone going perfect in the AFC South. Somehow, this Texans team does the impossible and gets it done before the holidays. What's a better gift for Texans fans than knowing they're winning the division again.

Verdict: Texans 24, Jaguars 17 (11-3)

Week 16: At Philadelphia Eagles (Christmas Eve)

The holidays bring out the best — or sometimes the worst — in people. The same goes for teams playing on the road with a short week to prepare. It could be ugly, with Eagles fans throwing snowballs at Toro for four quarters.

Verdict: Eagles 27, Texans 20 (11-4)

Week 17: At Green Bay Packers (Monday Night Football)

Even with several extra days to prepare, the Texans still have to travel in freezing temperatures. Will the Packers be playing for anything this late in the season? What about the Texans? Is the No. 1 seed on the line? Regardless this could end up being a sloppy, low-scoring affair, but a win for the team down south. This should clinch the top seed in the AFC.

Verdict: Texans 14, Packers 6 (13-3)

Week 18: vs. Tennessee Titans

Even with backups playing in the final game of the season, the Texans aren't taking any matchup for granted, especially with how much smack talk they've had all season. Houston breaks the record for the most wins in franchise history en route to getting a bye week in the wild-card round.

Verdict: Texans 31, Titans 21 (13-4)

FINAL RECORD: 13-4, 6-0 AFC South

This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: Texans Wire's Final Record Predictions: Is Houston the team to beat in the AFC?