The countdown to Florida State’s 2026 season opener has reached its final days, and ESPN’s Football Power Index views the Seminoles more favorably than several other national preseason rankings have.
Florida State checks in at No. 28 nationally in ESPN’s current preseason FPI, carrying a 9.3 rating. That places the Seminoles fifth among ACC programs, behind No. 7 Miami, No. 19 Clemson, No. 24 SMU and No. 27 Louisville.
The model projects Florida State to finish approximately 7-5 and gives Mike Norvell’s team a 71% chance of reaching at least six victories. FSU also carries a 4.2% chance to win the ACC and a 9.5% probability of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Those numbers provide a considerably more optimistic outlook than some of the preseason
projections surrounding a program coming off consecutive losing seasons. Florida State finished 5-7 in 2025 after going 2-10 the year before, making bowl eligibility one of the first benchmarks for a team trying to regain traction in Norvell’s seventh season.
Before the Seminoles navigate a schedule featuring SMU, Alabama, Louisville, Miami, Clemson and Florida, they will begin against an opponent sitting much farther down ESPN’s model. New Mexico State is No. 129 nationally with an FPI rating of minus-15.7. The Aggies are projected for a 4.4-7.6 record and enter the opener separated from Florida State by more than 100 spots in the rankings.
Florida State and New Mexico State will meet for just the second time when the teams take the field Saturday. Their only previous matchup came in 1964, when FSU earned a 36-0 victory in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles open the 2026 season against the Aggies on Aug. 29 at 7 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium, with the game airing on The CW. After that, the difficulty rises quickly with an ACC matchup against SMU on Labor Day followed by a trip to Alabama after a bye week.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: Where does FSU football land in the ESPN FPI heading into Week 0
