The FSU Seminoles snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday, beating the Central Arkansas Bears 34-7 in Doak Campbell Stadium. While the win got them back to .500 on the season, how did it affect their ranking in ESPN's SP+?
According to Bill Connelly, who created the metric in 2008, it is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency." It is an attempt to predict what will happen and does not reward a team for winning if they did not play well in the game. It can also reward teams for playing well in a loss.
Here is a look at where FSU stands in each major category measured by ESPN's SP+ ahead of Week 5's game against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Overall: No. 53
FSU is the No. 53 team in ESPN's SP+ rankings with a rating of 5.7, the same
spot they had before they beat Central Arkansas last week. They are the seventh-highest-ranked ACC team, behind the No. 4 Miami Hurricanes, No. 20 Pitt Panthers, No. 21 Virginia Cavaliers, No. 28 Virginia Tech Hokies, No. 34 Duke Blue Devils, and No. 37 Louisville Cardinals.
Offensive Ranking: No. 35
FSU's offense has a rating of 32.1, the 35th highest in the country. While it is not where it needs to be, the offense has been the clear strength of FSU's team and will need to carry them ahead of a tough conference slate.
Defensive Ranking: No. 74
FSU's defensive rating of 26.5 is the 74th-best mark in the country and one of the worst in the ACC. The Seminoles have to be better on defense if they are going to get their season on track and make a bowl game, something that won't be easy with their struggles in the secondary and along the defensive line.
Special Teams Ranking: No. 65
FSU's special teams have a 0.1 rating, with Ole Miss leading the country at 0.5. While FSU's special teams unit has not made any game-changing plays this year, they have also avoided costly mistakes.
FSU vs. Virginia prediction
According to the updated SP+, FSU will lose to Virginia Saturday afternoon in Doak Campbell Stadium. The model projects Virginia to win 30-24, giving the Cavaliers a 65% win probability. They are ranked as the No. 21 team in the metric, with the No. 20 defense (18.1) and No. 31 offense (32.4)
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: Where does FSU land in ESPN SP+ following its win vs Central Arkansas?
