Florida State had a week away from the field, but ESPN’s outlook on the Seminoles’ remaining schedule did not become much easier.
FSU enters Week 3 at 1-1 overall and 0-1 in ACC play following its 27-24 loss to SMU and subsequent open date. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor continues to see a difficult path ahead, particularly with three challenging road games among the Seminoles’ next five contests.
If every remaining game goes to the team favored by ESPN’s latest available projections, Florida State would finish 5-7 for the second consecutive season. Here is how ESPN’s Matchup Predictor views the remainder of FSU’s schedule entering Week 3.
Sept. 19: at Alabama
Projected winner: AlabamaFSU win probability: 11.1%Projected record: 1-2
Florida State opens the post-bye portion
of its schedule as a substantial underdog. ESPN gives No. 10 Alabama an 88.9% chance to win in Tuscaloosa, making this the Seminoles’ second-longest remaining shot behind Miami.
Sept. 26: vs. Central Arkansas
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 99.0%Projected record: 2-2
There is little uncertainty surrounding this one in ESPN’s model. The Seminoles’ latest published projection gives them a 99% chance to beat Central Arkansas at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Oct. 3: vs. Virginia
Projected winner: VirginiaFSU win probability: 42.6%Projected record: 2-3
Virginia continues to gain ground in the model. ESPN now gives the Cavaliers a 57.4% chance to win in Tallahassee, up from 53.9% entering Week 2.
Oct. 9: at Louisville
Projected winner: LouisvilleFSU win probability: 30.5%Projected record: 2-4
Another ACC road game presents another difficult projection. Louisville owns a 69.5% win probability, leaving Florida State with less than a one-in-three chance to win according to ESPN Analytics.
Oct. 17: at Miami
Projected winner: MiamiFSU win probability: 6.6%Projected record: 2-5
No remaining opponent is viewed more favorably against Florida State than rival Miami. ESPN gives the Seminoles just a 6.6% chance to leave South Florida with a victory.
Oct. 31: vs. Clemson
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 62.7%*Projected record: 3-5
This remains one of the more interesting games on the schedule. ESPN’s most recent published update for the matchup gave Florida State a 62.7% chance to beat Clemson after the Seminoles entered the season as the underdog.
Nov. 7: at Boston College
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 74.2%Projected record: 4-5
ESPN currently views Boston College as Florida State’s most favorable remaining ACC road game. The Seminoles have a 74.2% chance to win in Chestnut Hill.
Nov. 13: at Pitt
Projected winner: PittFSU win probability: 29.5%Projected record: 4-6
Pittsburgh has become one of the tougher games on FSU’s schedule in ESPN’s model. The most recent published matchup update gave the Seminoles a 29.5% chance to win after that figure sat at 42.7% earlier in the season.
Nov. 21: vs. NC State
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 71.8%Projected record: 5-6
FSU remains a clear favorite against NC State, although its probability has declined after the Wolfpack’s 73-0 Week 2 victory over Richmond. ESPN now gives the Seminoles a 71.8% chance to win.
Nov. 27: vs. Florida
Projected winner: FloridaFSU win probability: 30.6%Projected record: 5-7
ESPN currently favors Florida to extend its winning streak in the rivalry despite the game being played in Tallahassee. The Gators carry a 69.4% probability, while FSU sits at 30.6%.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts FSU football's remaining schedule after the bye
