ESPN predicts every game on FSU’s 2026 schedule

Florida State is days away from turning an offseason full of projections, rankings and predictions into actual football. The Seminoles open their 2026 season Saturday against New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium, beginning a 12-game schedule that will provide Mike Norvell’s team with opportunities to change the perception surrounding the program after consecutive losing seasons.

Before kickoff, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor provides another way to assess what could lie ahead. The model assigns a win probability to each matchup, and if every game goes to the team ESPN currently favors, Florida State would finish 5-7 for the second consecutive season.

The projection is not quite as bleak as the final record might suggest. FSU sits just below 50%

in matchups with the SMU Mustangs, Clemson Tigers and Pittsburgh Panthers, leaving several games that ESPN views as close to toss-ups.

Here is how the ESPN Matchup Predictor sees every game on Florida State’s 2026 schedule.

Aug. 29: vs. New Mexico State

Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 97.1%Projected record: 1-0

Sept. 7: vs. No. 19 SMU

Projected winner: SMUFSU win probability: 48.5%Projected record: 1-1

Sept. 19: at No. 13 Alabama

Projected winner: AlabamaFSU win probability: 18.4%Projected record: 1-2

Sept. 26: vs. Central Arkansas

Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 98.6%Running record: 2-2

Oct. 3: vs. Virginia

Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 61.8%Projected record: 3-2

Oct. 9: at No. 24 Louisville

Projected winner: LouisvilleFSU win probability: 42.3%Projected record: 3-3

Oct. 17: at No. 7 Miami

Projected winner: MiamiFSU win probability: 12.3%Projected record: 3-4

Oct. 31: vs. Clemson

Projected winner: ClemsonFSU win probability: 47.4%Projected record: 3-5

Nov. 7: at Boston College

Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 75.2%Projected record: 4-5

Nov. 13: at Pittsburgh

Projected winner: PittsburghFSU win probability: 46.8%Projected record: 4-6

Nov. 21: vs. NC State

Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 72.7%Projected record: 5-6

Nov. 27: vs. Florida

Projected winner: FloridaFSU win probability: 42.9%Projected record: 5-7

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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts every game on FSU’s 2026 schedule