Florida State’s 44-20 loss to Louisville did more than erase some of the momentum created by its blowout victory over Virginia. It also lowered the Seminoles’ outlook across ESPN’s Matchup Predictor.
After FSU’s chances improved in every remaining game a week ago, the latest update moved in the opposite direction. ESPN lowered Florida State’s win probability in each of its final six contests following the road loss to the Cardinals.
The Seminoles, now 3-3 overall and 1-2 in ACC play, are still projected to win three of their remaining six games. If ESPN’s favorite won every matchup, Florida State would finish the regular season 6-6.
Here is how ESPN currently projects the rest of FSU’s schedule, along with how each percentage changed from last
week.
Oct. 17 at Miami
Projected winner: MiamiFSU win probability: 5.8%Projected record: 3-4
Florida State already faced long odds against undefeated Miami, and ESPN has become even less optimistic following the Louisville loss. FSU’s probability dropped from 8.2% to 5.8%, making the Hurricanes by far the Seminoles’ most difficult remaining matchup.
Oct. 31 vs. Clemson
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 64.7%Projected record: 4-4
The Seminoles remain ESPN’s choice against Clemson at Doak Campbell Stadium, although their advantage has narrowed considerably. Florida State held a 73.2% probability last week, the largest decline of any game remaining on the schedule.
Nov. 7 at Boston College
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 79.0%Projected record: 5-4
Boston College continues to represent Florida State’s most favorable remaining matchup. Still, ESPN lowered FSU’s chances from 83.7% to 79.0% after the Seminoles’ setback at Louisville.
Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh
Projected winner: PittsburghFSU win probability: 30.2%Projected record: 5-5
ESPN already viewed the trip to Pittsburgh as one of FSU’s tougher remaining assignments, and that outlook worsened slightly. The Seminoles’ probability fell three percentage points from 33.2% last week to 30.2% in the latest projection.
Nov. 21 vs. NC State
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 77.0%Projected record: 6-5
Florida State remains a substantial favorite against NC State despite its latest loss. This matchup experienced one of the smallest changes, with FSU slipping only 0.9 percentage points from 77.9% to 77.0%.
Nov. 27 vs. Florida
Projected winner: FloridaFSU win probability: 42.9%Projected record: 6-6
ESPN still expects the regular-season finale to be one of Florida State’s more competitive remaining games. The Seminoles’ chances dipped only slightly from 43.7% to 42.9%, leaving Florida as a narrow favorite in the model.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts FSU's remaining schedule after Louisville loss
