Florida State’s path to bowl eligibility has become considerably narrower, and the Seminoles will now try to navigate the final month with a new head coach and without their leading receiver.
Following a 36-24 home loss to the Clemson Tigers that dropped the Seminoles to 3-5 overall and 1-4 in ACC play, ESPN’s latest Matchup Predictor now favors FSU in only two of its final four games. Florida State needs three victories to reach six wins, meaning the current projection would leave the Seminoles short of the postseason for the third straight season.
The percentages also moved significantly from last week. FSU gained ground against Boston College but lost considerable confidence in each of its other three remaining matchups.
Here is how ESPN currently
projects Florida State’s final four games.
Nov. 7 at Boston College
FSU win probability: 75.1%Last week: 70.1% Projected FSU record: 4-5
Florida State’s odds actually improved after the Clemson loss because Boston College endured an even rougher weekend. The Eagles were overwhelmed 47-2 at Duke, managing only 213 total yards and failing to score an offensive point.
BC fell to 4-4, helping push FSU’s probability above 75% despite the Seminoles entering with a three-game losing streak.
Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh
FSU win probability: 38.0%Last week: 43.6% Projected FSU record: 4-6
Pittsburgh moved in the opposite direction after snapping a three-game skid with a convincing 34-11 win over Georgia Tech. The Panthers rushed for 281 yards, generated five sacks, and improved to 6-3, giving ESPN more reason to favor Pitt at home.
Nov. 21 vs. NC State
FSU win probability: 75.7%Last week: 82.3% Projected FSU record: 5-6
This remains Florida State’s most favorable matchup after Boston College, but the gap narrowed sharply. NC State bounced back from consecutive losses by beating California 31-10, shutting the Golden Bears out in the second half and scoring 21 unanswered points after halftime. That result, combined with FSU’s loss to Clemson, dropped the Seminoles’ advantage by 6.6 percentage points.
Nov. 27 vs. Florida
FSU win probability: 38.0%Last week: 42.4% Projected final record: 5-7
Neither side helped itself over the weekend. Florida lost 27-8 to No. 3 Georgia, producing only 246 yards and 48 on the ground, while FSU fell by 12 at home to Clemson. ESPN nevertheless moved the rivalry matchup further toward the Gators, dropping Florida State’s probability by 4.4 points.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts FSU's remaining schedule after Mike Norvell firing
