The FSU Seminoles picked up their first win over a Power Four opponent last Saturday, beating the Virginia Cavaliers 38-7 in Doak Campbell Stadium. While the win was massive for Florida State, how did it affect their ranking in ESPN's SP+?
According to Bill Connelly, who created the metric in 2008, it is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency." It is an attempt to predict what will happen and does not reward a team for winning if they did not play well in the game. It can also reward teams for playing well in a loss.
Here is a look at where FSU stands in each major category measured by ESPN's SP+ ahead of Week 6's game against the Louisville Cardinals.
Overall: No. 36
FSU is the No. 36 team in ESPN's SP+ rankings with a rating of
63.1, a 14-spot improvement from before the game. They are the sixth-highest-ranked ACC team, behind the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes, No. 18 Pitt Panthers, No. 24 SMU Mustangs, No. 28 Virginia Tech Hokies, and No. 32 Louisville Cardinals.
Offensive Ranking: No. 22
FSU's offense has a rating of 60.7, the 22nd highest in the country. The offensive ranking improved 13 spots after they scored 38 points on Virginia.
Defensive Ranking: No. 50
FSU's defensive rating of -2.3 is the 50th-best mark in the country and showed the biggest improvement from last week. The Seminoles' defense had a 0.4 rating before the game, the 74th-best ranking in the country. It was the best the defense has looked all year, holding Virginia to 37 rushing yards and recording 10 sacks, their most since 1997.
FSU vs. Louisville prediction
According to the updated SP+, FSU will lose to Louisville Friday night in L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The model projects Louisville to win 32-29, giving the Cardinals a 58% win probability. They are ranked as the No. 32 team in the metric, with the No. 64 defense (-0.5) and No. 31 offense (63.3)
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: Where does FSU land in ESPN SP+ following its win vs Virginia
