The Florida State Seminoles have one game in the win column, but ESPN’s latest projections still see a difficult path to bowl eligibility for the Seminoles.
FSU opened the 2026 season with a 34-17 victory over New Mexico State, improving to 1-0 before beginning a much more challenging stretch of its schedule. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has since updated its outlook for the Seminoles’ remaining 11 games, with Florida State favored in only four of them.
If every remaining game went to the team currently favored by ESPN Analytics, Florida State would finish 5-7 for the second consecutive season. The Seminoles are slight underdogs in several games, however, leaving plenty of opportunities for that projection to change as the season progresses.
Sept. 7: vs. No. 19 SMU Mustangs
Projected
winner: SMUFSU win probability: 44.3%Projected record: 1-1
Sept. 19: at No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected winner: AlabamaFSU win probability: 16.0%Projected record: 1-2
Sept. 26: vs. Central Arkansas Bears
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 97.9%Projected record: 2-2
Oct. 3: vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 50.1%Projected record: 3-2
Oct. 9: at No. 24 Louisville Cardinals
Projected winner: LouisvilleFSU win probability: 38.2%Projected record: 3-3
Oct. 17: at No. 7 Miami Hurricanes
Projected winner: MiamiFSU win probability: 10.6%Projected record: 3-4
Oct. 31: vs. Clemson Tigers
Projected winner: ClemsonFSU win probability: 43.3%Projected record: 3-5
Nov. 7: at Boston College Eagles
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 75.2%Projected record: 4-5
Nov. 13: at Pitt Panthers
Projected winner: PittFSU win probability: 42.7%Projected record: 4-6
Nov. 21: vs. NC State Wolfpack
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 81.0%Projected record: 5-6
Nov. 27: vs. Florida Gators
Projected winner: FloridaFSU win probability: 38.8%Projected record: 5-7
The updated forecast leaves Florida State in essentially the same place ESPN had it before the season: projected to finish 5-7. However, with SMU, Virginia, Clemson and Pitt all sitting within roughly 15 percentage points of a 50-50 matchup, there are several games capable of dramatically changing the Seminoles’ outlook.
For FSU, the first opportunity comes Monday night against SMU. A win over the Mustangs would immediately put the Seminoles ahead of the path ESPN currently projects.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts the remainder of FSU football's schedule after Week 0
