Florida State did not play during Week 8 of the college football season, enjoying its second bye week, yet the outlook for the Seminoles’ final five games still changed considerably.
At 3-4, FSU needs three wins over its final five games to guarantee bowl eligibility, and ESPN’s latest Matchup Predictor continues to see a path to exactly that. The Seminoles are favored against the Clemson Tigers, Boston College Eagles and NC State Wolfpack, while the Pittsburgh Panthers and Florida Gators remain the two games in which ESPN gives the opponent the advantage.
The overall projection has not changed from last week, as if ESPN’s favorite wins each remaining matchup, Florida State would finish 6-6. The individual percentages, however, moved in every
game as FSU watched several future opponents take the field during its bye.
Here is how ESPN currently views the remainder of Florida State’s schedule and how each projection has shifted since last week.
Oct. 31 vs. Clemson
FSU win probability: 71.9%Last week: 68.4% Projected FSU record: 4-4
Florida State’s chances against Clemson received another boost without the Seminoles taking a snap. The Tigers fell to 4-3 after a 20-16 home loss to Virginia Tech, failing to finish a late comeback despite holding the Hokies to only 234 total yards. Clemson has now lost two of its last three ACC games, helping push FSU’s projection above 70% for the first time in this matchup.
Nov. 7 at Boston College
FSU win probability: 70.1%Last week: 75.8% Projected FSU record: 5-4
This was the largest move against Florida State. Boston College followed its upset of Pittsburgh with a 49-27 road victory over Georgia Tech, piling up 500 total yards and an eye-opening 399 on the ground. The Eagles have now won consecutive ACC games, and ESPN responded by cutting FSU’s advantage by nearly six percentage points.
Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh
FSU win probability: 43.6%Last week: 39.7% Projected FSU record: 5-5
Pittsburgh remains favored, but the gap continues to shrink. The Panthers were handed a 52-23 loss at No. 1 Miami, their third consecutive defeat after opening the season 5-0. Pitt allowed 506 total yards and fell to 5-3, helping FSU’s probability climb nearly four points despite the Seminoles being idle.
Nov. 21 vs. NC State
FSU win probability: 82.3%Last week: 79.2% Projected FSU record: 6-5
NC State’s recent slide has strengthened what was already FSU’s most favorable remaining projection. The Wolfpack lost 31-28 at Stanford, dropping to 3-4 overall and extending their losing streak to two games. ESPN now gives Florida State better than an 82% chance to win the late-November matchup in Tallahassee.
Nov. 27 vs. Florida
FSU win probability: 42.4%Last week: 41.4% Projected final record: 6-6
Florida State gained only one percentage point in its regular-season finale, with neither the Seminoles nor Gators playing over the weekend. Florida remains 5-2 after its Oct. 17 road victory over Texas and returns from its bye against Georgia on Oct. 31. With both teams idle, the slight movement is better viewed as part of ESPN’s broader model recalculation rather than the result of a new performance from either side.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN shifts its outlook on FSU’s final five games
