The FSU Seminoles are looking to start the 2026 season 2-0 but have a tough test ahead of them with the No. 19 SMU Mustangs coming to Doak Campbell Stadium for a Labor Day matchup on Monday night.
Florida State started their season last week, beating the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 in a performance that left plenty of questions about the Seminoles. The running back duo of Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton Jr. carried the offense, but FSU will likely need the rest of the offense to get going against an SMU team that is entering the season looking to win the ACC and return to the College Football Playoffs.
This will be SMU's first game of the season and their first time playing in Tallahassee, with the Mustangs winning their only other meeting
42-16 in 2024. Despite FSU having already played a game this season, they are the underdogs ahead of kickoff, something SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee does not understand.
To get ready for the game, we go through our weekly roundtable with the writers from FSU Wire to offer our predictions and opinions on what's to come. Here are our thoughts on FSU's second game of the season.
FSU's rushing attack
Question: FSU's running backs went off in Week 0, will they do so again?
- JD McCarthy: They are the focal point of the offense and will have another solid performance, but they won't be as dominant as they were in Week 0. FSU needs to find ways to have two of them on the field more as they look to get as many of their best players on the field at once.
- Matthew Lenix: They certainly have the talent to do so. It will all depend on how the offensive line plays. If they show up, they'll have another big game.
- Brandon Foster: I expect the running backs to remain the strength of the offense, but 217 rushing yards will be tougher to replicate against SMU. Ousmane Kromah, Samuel Singleton Jr. and Quintrevion Wisner give FSU enough variety to still have a productive night.
- Jacob Smith: I'm unsure on this one. SMU has high upside, but it's going to revolve around the offensive line not getting bullied by the SMU defense. It will be good, but not great in my opinion.
Getting off the field
Question: New Mexico State crushed FSU on 3rd down, will FSU be able to get off the field vs SMU?
- JD McCarthy: They will be better than they were against New Mexico State, but SMU's offense will still win the battle on third down and have several lengthy drives.
- Matthew Lenix: This is probably the biggest key for FSU. They have to be better on third down, or it's going to be a long night. It'll be important for the defensive front to show up in this one.
- Brandon Foster: That is my biggest concern entering this game after New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs. Kevin Jennings is far more dangerous than what FSU faced in Week 0, so if the Seminoles cannot improve on money downs, SMU will sustain drives and make this a long night for the defense.
- Jacob Smith: No. Kevin Jennings is him, and the fact that people aren't considering him in the Heisman race is a travesty. With how unreliable the defense was against NMSU, this might be like 2024 again.
Ashton Daniels' outlook
Question: Ashton Daniels was solid against New Mexico State, what do you want to see from him this week?
- JD McCarthy: He needs to be more aggressive throwing the ball downfield. FSU had some open shots against New Mexico State, and he did not take them. They will need that to change against SMU.
- Matthew Lenix: He needs to be patient and run the offense smoothly. Also, he has to take more shots downfield, especially with a weapon like Micahi Danzy. Lastly, he can't turn the ball over because SMU is too good offensively to give them extra possessions.
- Brandon Foster: I want to see Daniels be more aggressive and efficient throwing the ball downfield while limiting the mistakes that resulted in an interception in the opener. FSU probably cannot rely on the running game alone against SMU, so this feels like the first game where Daniels may need to be a difference-maker.
- Jacob Smith: Please throw to Duce Robinson more, he is a rare talent we haven't seen since Keon Coleman. It's a shame he wasn't used more last week.
Pressuring Kevin Jennings
Question: FSU's defensive line struggled to generate pressure against New Mexico State, will that change vs. SMU?
- JD McCarthy: Not consistently enough. They will be able to generate pressure sporadically as Tony White blitzes, but SMU's offensive line is too talented and will keep Kevin Jennings protected.
- Matthew Lenix: This ties into the previous point. Getting pressure on Kevin Jennings is essential. If not, SMU will dominate time of possession and keep FSU's offense on the sideline without any rhythm.
- Brandon Foster: It has to if Florida State wants to win. Jennings threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, and giving him a clean pocket consistently would put enormous pressure on an FSU secondary that already allowed 272 passing yards against New Mexico State.
- Jacob Smith: It's unlikely that an offensive line that has Joshua Bates and P.J. Williams, both preseason All-ACC teammates, will have challenges against a struggling FSU squad.
Final Score Prediction
Question: Who wins this game and why?
- JD McCarthy: SMU 38, FSU 23. While FSU got the win in Week 0 and got their first-game jitters out of the way, they did not look like a team poised to pull off an upset against a top 25 team. The Mustangs crushed the Seminoles when they met in 2024, and while it won't be that bad, they will pick up a comfortable victory in Doak Campbell Stadium.
- Matthew Lenix: FSU gets the upset 31-27 in a close one. I think they'll get a few turnovers, and I feel their offensive line will step up and allow the running game to flourish, which will set up Ashton Daniels and the passing game.
- Brandon Foster: Florida State 27, SMU 24. I think FSU’s running game and home-field advantage are enough to keep it close, and I’m taking the Seminoles to make one or two defensive plays late that they were missing against New Mexico State.
- Jacob Smith: SMU 41, FSU 24. This team has great potential, but I just don't see FSU being able to keep up with SMU's style of play. Jennings is a great-to-elite dual-threat quarterback.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: FSU Wire staff predicts FSU Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs
