Florida State’s 2026 season has already taken an early turn after a narrow loss to the SMU Mustangs, and ESPN’s updated projections continue to see a difficult road ahead for the Seminoles.
FSU enters its first bye week 1-1 overall and 0-1 in ACC play after falling 27-24 to SMU on Monday night. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has updated throughout the schedule, and if every remaining game went to the team currently favored by ESPN Analytics, Florida State would finish 5-7 for the second consecutive season.
The Seminoles are currently favored in only four of their final 10 games, although the model now views the Halloween matchup with the Clemson Tigers much more favorably than it did before the season.
Here is how ESPN’s Matchup Predictor currently sees
the remainder of Florida State’s schedule.
Sept. 19: at Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected winner: AlabamaFSU win probability: 11.6%Projected record: 1-2
Florida State’s outlook in Tuscaloosa has worsened since the preseason, when ESPN initially gave the Seminoles a 16% chance to win. At 11.6%, Alabama is now one of the strongest favorites FSU will face all season, making this more of an opportunity to outperform expectations than a game ESPN currently expects the Seminoles to win.
Sept. 26: vs. Central Arkansas Bears
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 99.0%Projected record: 2-2
This is the closest thing to a must-win on Florida State’s schedule. ESPN gives the Seminoles a 99% chance to win at home, meaning anything other than a convincing victory would represent a significant setback before FSU dives back into ACC play.
Oct. 3: vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Projected winner: VirginiaFSU win probability: 46.1%Projected record: 2-3
Virginia has moved from a game ESPN once favored Florida State to win into essentially a toss-up tilted slightly toward the Cavaliers. For a Seminoles team projected to hover around bowl eligibility, this is exactly the type of home game it may need to win to outperform the model’s 5-7 path.
Oct. 9: at Louisville Cardinals
Projected winner: LouisvilleFSU win probability: 35.1%Projected record: 2-4
The trip to Louisville remains difficult, but it is not nearly as lopsided as FSU’s road games against Alabama and Miami. A 35.1% probability leaves the Seminoles within upset range, especially if the offense can lean on the running game and avoid putting too much pressure on Ashton Daniels.
Oct. 17: at Miami Hurricanes
Projected winner: MiamiFSU win probability: 6.6%Projected record: 2-5
ESPN views the rivalry game as Florida State’s most difficult remaining matchup. The Seminoles’ chances have fallen from 10.6% in the previous update to just 6.6%, making Miami the only opponent on the schedule with better than a 90% projected chance to beat FSU.
Oct. 31: vs. Clemson Tigers
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 62.7%Projected record: 3-5
This is easily the most dramatic change on Florida State’s remaining schedule. ESPN previously gave FSU only a 43.3% chance to beat Clemson, but the Seminoles are now projected favorites at 62.7%, turning what looked like one of the tougher games on the schedule into a potential opportunity for a meaningful ACC win.
Nov. 7: at Boston College Eagles
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 75.0%Projected record: 4-5
Boston College remains Florida State’s best opportunity to earn an ACC road victory. ESPN’s projection has barely moved from its previous 75.2% mark, making this one of the few games where the model has consistently viewed the Seminoles as clear favorites.
Nov. 13: at Pitt Panthers
Projected winner: PittFSU win probability: 29.5%Projected record: 4-6
Few games have moved against Florida State as sharply as the trip to Pittsburgh. FSU previously carried a 42.7% chance to win, but that figure has dropped to 29.5%, turning what once looked like a competitive road matchup into one ESPN now sees as a significant challenge.
Nov. 21: vs. NC State Wolfpack
Projected winner: Florida StateFSU win probability: 79.1%Projected record: 5-6
NC State remains one of the most favorable games on Florida State’s ACC schedule. The Seminoles are nearly four-to-one favorites in ESPN’s model, and if the season unfolds close to the current projection, this could become an essential victory in FSU’s push toward six wins.
Nov. 27: vs. Florida Gators
Projected winner: FloridaFSU win probability: 31.6%Projected record: 5-7
ESPN’s outlook on the rivalry finale has also shifted away from the Seminoles. FSU previously held a 38.8% chance to win, but that has dropped to 31.6%, meaning ESPN currently sees the Gators as clear favorites even with the game being played at Doak Campbell Stadium.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts the remainder of FSU football's schedule after Week 1
