Florida State's postseason hopes received a much-needed boost Saturday, and ESPN's latest Matchup Predictor is beginning to reflect the Seminoles' changing outlook.
Following a 31-24 comeback victory over Boston College in interim head coach Rick Stockstill's debut, Florida State improved to 4-5 overall and 2-4 in ACC play. The win snapped a three-game losing streak and kept the Seminoles within striking distance of bowl eligibility.
With three games remaining, Florida State needs two victories to reach the six-win threshold. However, ESPN's latest projections favor the Seminoles in just one of those matchups. The outlook has improved since last week's update, with Florida State gaining ground against the NC State Wolfpack and rival Florida Gators
while its chances against the Pittsburgh Panthers remain unchanged.
Here's how ESPN projects the Seminoles' final three regular-season games.
Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh
- Projected Winner: Pittsburgh
- FSU win probability: 38.0%
- Projected FSU record: 4-6
Florida State's first victory under Stockstill did little to change ESPN's expectations for Friday night's trip to Pittsburgh. The Panthers (6-3) remain favorites despite entering the matchup following a bye week. Pittsburgh has been particularly difficult to beat at Acrisure Stadium, compiling a 5-1 home record this season.
Nov. 21 vs. NC State
- Projected Winner: FSU
- FSU win probability: 80.8%
- Projected FSU record: 5-6
No remaining matchup shifted more dramatically in Florida State's favor than its home meeting with NC State. The Wolfpack suffered a humiliating 41-3 loss to Duke on Saturday, managing just 217 total yards and 32 rushing yards while allowing 238 yards on the ground.
Meanwhile, Florida State rushed for 202 yards against Boston College, with freshman Amari Thomas contributing 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Nov. 27 vs. Florida
- Projected Winner: Florida
- FSU win probability: 42.3%
- Projected FSU record: 5-7
Florida State's chances against its biggest rival have improved despite ESPN continuing to favor the Gators. Florida (5-4) has dropped four of its last five games, including consecutive losses to Georgia and Oklahoma in which the offense combined for just 15 points.
The Gators' latest setback, a 23-7 home loss to Oklahoma, saw them produce only 203 total yards while throwing two interceptions.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN predicts FSU's remaining schedule after Week 10
