Florida State did not leave Miami with the win it wanted, but the Seminoles’ performance apparently helped their standing in one of ESPN’s primary predictive metrics.
FSU climbed five spots to No. 36 nationally in ESPN’s latest Football Power Index rankings following its 43-35 double-overtime loss to Miami. The Seminoles were No. 41 last week after falling 44-20 at Louisville.
The rise is notable considering Florida State suffered its second consecutive loss and dropped to 3-4 overall and 1-3 in ACC play. This was hardly a typical loss, however. FSU entered the rivalry matchup as roughly a three-touchdown underdog and pushed an undefeated Miami team into a second overtime before finally losing.
The Hurricanes remain No. 4 nationally in FPI, helping
put the Seminoles’ road performance into perspective.
Florida State now carries a 9.6 FPI rating, which ranks fifth among ACC programs. Miami leads the conference at No. 4, followed by Wake Forest at No. 16, Louisville at No. 23, and SMU at No. 35. FSU sits immediately behind the Mustangs at No. 36.
Unlike a traditional poll, FPI is designed to measure how strong a team is expected to be moving forward rather than simply rewarding wins and punishing losses. ESPN defines the metric as a measure of team strength representing how many points above or below an average team a program would be, with projections generated through 20,000 simulations and updated daily.
That helps explain how Florida State could improve despite another mark in the loss column. The Seminoles went on the road against one of FPI’s highest-rated teams and came within one possession of pulling off a major upset.
ESPN’s model currently projects Florida State to finish 6-6, leaving bowl eligibility very much in play despite the difficult first seven games.
FSU enters its bye week before returning home to face the Clemson Tigers on Oct. 31. For a team that has experienced significant swings in FPI throughout the season, its latest jump is another example of how quickly the model’s view of the Seminoles can change.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: FSU gets a boost in ESPN’s latest FPI update
