The FSU Seminoles have to perform well this season after going 7-17 over the previous two years. That has put the future of head coach Mike Norvell is serious jeopardy despite the confidence the program has expressed in him.
It's been a struggle for Norvell and his team since their undefeated regular season in 2023. Particularly, Florida State has been awful within the ACC. They've only won three games in conference play, and they haven't logged any wins on the road over that span.
John Talty of CBS Sports released the most important games of the 2026 season for several coaches. The three he mentioned regarding Norvell are all in the ACC.
An ugly Week 0 win over New Mexico State did nothing to solidify Mike Norvell's job security at Florida State.
The Seminoles have a critical Labor Day primetime game against No. 19 SMU that could build momentum … for keeping his job or getting run out of Tallahassee. FSU has a very challenging schedule -- No. 13 Alabama awaits in Week 2 -- and it needs to get off to a hot start to have any shot at getting into the 8-win range by the end of the season. Program insiders point to SMU as supremely important for Norvell to buy back lost goodwill from a fanbase that no longer seems to believe in him.
Virginia on Oct. 3 will be key in that regard, too. A winnable home game before two challenging road trips (No. 24 Louisville, No. 7 Miami), beating the Cavaliers will be crucial for sustaining morale and quieting outside noise. The bad news for FSU is UVA looked awfully good in a blowout win over North Carolina State in Week 0.
If Norvell can survive through the early slate and keep his job through a bye after Miami, a home game against Clemson looms large. If Florida State fires Norvell after the season, it will owe him $51 million. One thing telling about Norvell's status: Florida State did not spend up big in the transfer portal the way other hot seat programs did to help their coaches this season.
One key factor for Norvell is that all three of these games will be at home. However, they haven't exactly been a juggernaut inside Doak Campbell Stadium lately either, so it certainly doesn't guarantee a win. Plus, all three of these teams have beaten FSU over the last two seasons, with the Clemson Tigers getting back-to-back wins.
Norvell and the Seminoles have their work cut out for them in these matchups. Will they rise to the occasion? Or, will these games seal Norvell's fate as Florida State's coach? Time will tell.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: Mike Norvell's fate may depend on what happens in three ACC games
