Ohio State football is in dire straits after back-to-back Big Ten losses and finds itself in a precarious uphill climb to somehow get back in the mix for a Big Ten Championship game and a chance at still making the College Football Playoff. Those goals haven't entirely evaporated, but the water is boiling, and the steam is rising on the season as the Buckeyes
prepare to host Northwestern on Saturday.We've already looked at what ESPN FPI indicates about the Buckeyes' chances of beating the Wildcats on Saturday, along with the odds and a prediction, and we continue to make the rounds of predictions thanks to the wonderment of the worldwide web and ESPN again.
That's right, we're adding another prediction to the mix, one from ESPN's resident analytics
expert, Bill Connelly. He used the well-known SP+ analytics model to predict the final score of Ohio State-Northwestern, and the model believes the Buckeyes are going to get back on track rather easily.
Will Ohio State football beat Northwestern? ESPN's final score prediction
Ahead of Ohio State vs. Northwestern, ESPN's Bill Connelly predicted the final score using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Buckeyes winning by two touchdowns, which might be a bit surprising considering what we've seen from the Scarlet and Gray since Julian Sayin went down with injury.
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 33, Northwestern 19. Connelly mentions there's no adjustment for the quarterback, so consider how Luke Fahey plays in his third start now as the X factor in this one. It looks like it's Fahey's team going forward, sink or swim.
Connelly gives Ohio State a win probability of 81%.
Where Ohio State football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering Week 11
Ohio State is No. 4 in ESPN's SP+ team rankings, down a couple of spots after falling to No. 2 last week. That might be a bit surprising, seeing how poor the Buckeyes have looked the last couple of games.
Ohio State has an overall rating of 24.0, behind No. 1 Georgia (31.3), Notre Dame (24.4), and Miami (FL) (24.0). Northwestern's SP+ ranking is quite a few spots behind the Buckeyes at No. 33 with an overall rating of 12.4.
To break down Ohio State's rating by units, SP+ gives the Buckeyes a 37.6 rating on offense (No. 11 nationally) and a 13.9 rating on defense, which is No. 8 nationally. On special teams, Ohio State has a 0.3 rating, which continues the improving trend from earlier in the year, landing at No. 57 overall.
Breaking down Northwestern's SP+ ranking, the model gives the Hoosiers a 32.4 rating on offense that's No. 34 nationally, a 19.9 rating on defense (No. 31 in the nation), and a -0.1 rating in special teams (No. 74).
What are ESPN SP+ rankings?
According to Connelly, SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
"SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does," he adds.
Ohio State football vs. Northwestern: Start time, channel for Week 11
Kickoff for Ohio State-Northwestern in Week 11 of the 2026 college football season is Noon ET Saturday at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. The game can be seen on Fox, with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt on the call, and with Jenny Taft reporting from the sidelines.
Additionally, you can catch the game on radio via the Learfield radio broadcast team of Paul Keels and Jim Lachey. The banner station for the Ohio State Radio Network is 1460 WBNS radio (AM).
Ohio State football schedule 2026
All times Eastern.
- Sept. 5: vs. Ball State Cardinals (W, 56-3)
- Sept. 12: at Texas Longhorns (L, 24-23)
- Sept. 19: vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (W, 59-3)
- Sept. 26: vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (W, 42-19)
- Oct. 3: at Iowa Hawkeyes (W, 31-14)
- Oct. 10: vs. Maryland Terrapins (W, 45-16)
- Oct. 17: at Indiana Hoosiers (W, 19-15)
- Oct. 24: Off
- Oct. 31: at USC Trojans (L, 30-18)
- Nov. 7: at Oregon Ducks (L, 41-28)
- Nov. 14: vs. Northwestern Wildcats, Noon ET, Fox
- Nov. 21: at Nebraska Cornhuskers, TBA
- Nov. 28: vs. Michigan Wolverines, Noon, Fox
Record: 6-3, 4-2 Big Ten
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN analytics predict final score of Ohio State vs Northwestern
