Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes, and we will throughout the 2026 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN Matchup Predictor says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
Now that Week 1 is in the books, the computer model ESPN uses has some real, live data to go by, and it's always interesting to see how things shift from where they were at the start of the season.
This year's schedule is a daunting one, with road contests
at Texas, Indiana, Iowa, and USC, and home games vs. Oregon and Michigan.
Here's what ESPN's Matchup Predictor says for a game-by-game prediction of the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule for the 2026 season after one week and how it's changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes.
Sept. 5 vs. Ball State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 56-3
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 1-0
Sept. 12 at Texas Longhorns
Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
Predicted winner | Texas
Buckeyes win probability | 40.1% (down from 46.3%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2
Projected running record | 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. Kent State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-0
Projected running record | 2-1
Sept. 26 vs. Illinois
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 96.3% (up from 95.4%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4
Projected running record | 3-1
Oct. 3 at Iowa
Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.7% (up from 87.6%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-15-3
Projected running record | 4-1
Oct. 10 vs. Maryland
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 97.4% (down from 97.6%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-0
Projected running record | 5-1
Oct. 17 at Indiana
Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 61.3% (up from 60.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 80-13-5
Projected running record | 6-1
Oct. 31 at USC
Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 76.7% (up from 75.0%)
All-time series | USC leads 13-10-1
Projected running record | 7-1
Nov. 7 vs. Oregon
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 80.6% (up from 71.6%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-2
Projected running record | 8-1
Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 97.5% (up from 97.4%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1
Projected running record | 9-1
Nov. 21 at Nebraska
Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.0% (down from 89.4%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-1
Projected running record | 10-1
Nov. 28 vs. Michigan
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 92.3% (up from 86.1%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 11-1
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State updated remaining game-by-game ESPN predictions after Wek 1
