Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and we get into it ourselves when the time comes each week during the 2026 Ohio State football season.
If you've followed us at all, you know we like to check on what the ESPN matchup predictor offers about Ohio State's probability of winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust the numbers after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
After another chaotic Week 8, with some more major surprises, the computer model ESPN uses did its thing and spit out a new look at the chances of the Buckeyes winning each remaining game for the 2026 regular season schedule. The Buckeyes were off last week, but how other teams fared plays
into the analytics as well. How does the model treat the prospects of a new starting quarterback?
This year's schedule is a daunting one, with remaining road contests still to go at USC and Nebraska, and home games against Oregon and Michigan also on the docket.
Here are ESPN's matchup predictor numbers for the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule and how they have changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes.
Sept. 5 vs. Ball State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 56-3
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 1-0
Sept. 12 at Texas Longhorns
Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
Predicted winner | Texas (59.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State lost 24-23
All-time series | Tied at 3-3
Actual running record | 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. Kent State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 59-3
All-time series | Ohio State leads 4-0
Actual running record | 2-1
Sept. 26 vs. Illinois
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (95.3%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 42-19
All-time series | Ohio State leads 70-30-4
Actual running record | 3-1
Oct. 3 at Iowa
Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (82.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 31-14
All-time series | Ohio State leads 49-15-3
Actual running record | 4-1
Oct. 10 vs. Maryland
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (98.4%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 45-16
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Actual running record | 5-1
Oct. 17 at Indiana
Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (52.2%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 19-15
All-time series | Ohio State leads 81-13-5
Actual running record | 6-1
Oct. 31 at USC
Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 82.8% (up from 78.1%)
All-time series | USC leads 13-10-1
Projected running record | 7-1
Nov. 7 vs. Oregon
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 86.9% (up from 83.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-2
Projected running record | 8-1
Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.5% (down from 89.4%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1
Projected running record | 9-1
Nov. 21 at Nebraska
Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 75.0% (up from 74.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-1
Projected running record | 10-1
Nov. 28 vs. Michigan
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 91.3% (down from 91.6%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 11-1
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN updates Ohio State game predictions ahead of new starting QB
