When Ohio State lost its second straight game and third overall last week against Oregon
in the 'Shoe, the immediate narrative of the aftermath was that the Buckeyes' chances of making the College Football Playoff were dead. And while making it as a three-loss team would be an uphill climb, we thought we would consult what ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor had to say, now that the CFP committee has spoken and placed OSU in the No. 20 spot in the second release of the CFP rankings.There are still three weeks in the regular season to go, and being in the 20th spot when Ohio State will most likely need to jump at least nine spots to No. 11 (the top-ranked Group of Six team gets the 12th spot if not ranked higher) is less than ideal, but it's not out
of the question.
While looking at the Playoff Predictor without taking anything else into account, ESPN has the Buckeyes' chances at 37% (better than Oregon or Iowa currently). That's at face value, without any more variables put into play. However, if you play with things and pick Ohio State to win its last three regular-season games against Northwestern, at Nebraska, and at home vs. Michigan, three games the Buckeyes are currently favored to win according to ESPN's "Matchup Predictor."
Taking that into account, Ohio State's chances of making the playoff rise to 56% if it doesn't make the Big Ten Championship game. That's better than not, and it's worth noting that there's not as much that has to go right for the Buckeyes to reach Indy as you might think.
Taking it further, if Ohio State does reach the conference championship game and lose, the percentage of making the CFP drops to 32%, which seems odd because the committee has not historically penalized teams for getting that extra game in a conference championship setting.
The most likely path, however, is if Ohio State does find its way to Indy and win, because that's an automatic spot in the CFP and takes the committee's guesswork out of the whole equation. So, the most likely scenario on the table right now is that the Buckeyes win out, sit at home, then still have a better chance than not of being selected as one of the 12 teams for the College Football Playoff.
So, you're saying there's a chance?
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: What the ESPN Playoff Predictor says about Ohio State making the CFP
