Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and we get into it ourselves when the time comes, and we will throughout the 2026 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN Matchup Predictor says about Ohio State's probability of winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
Now that Week 6 is behind us, with some surprises, the computer model ESPN uses did its thing and spit out a new look at the chances of the Buckeyes winning each remaining game for the 2026 regular season schedule. The Buckeyes pulled away late in the first half and cruised
to an impressive win over Iowa last weekend, but other teams' results also factor into ESPN's analytics.
This year's schedule is a daunting one, with remaining road contests still to go at Indiana, USC, and Nebraska, and home games vs. Oregon and Michigan also on the docket.
Here's what ESPN's Matchup Predictor says for a game-by-game prediction of the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule after four weeks and how it's changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes.
Sept. 5 vs. Ball State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 56-3
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 1-0
Sept. 12 at Texas Longhorns
Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
Predicted winner | Texas (59.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State lost 24-23
All-time series | Tied at 3-3
Actual running record | 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. Kent State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 59-3
All-time series | Ohio State leads 4-0
Actual running record | 2-1
Sept. 26 vs. Illinois
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (95.3%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 42-19
All-time series | Ohio State leads 70-30-4
Actual running record | 3-1
Oct. 3 at Iowa
Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (82.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 31-14
All-time series | Ohio State leads 49-15-3
Actual running record | 4-1
Oct. 10 vs. Maryland
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (98.4%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 45-16
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Projected running record | 5-1
Oct. 17 at Indiana
Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 52.2% (down from 54.0%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 80-13-5
Projected running record | 6-1
Oct. 31 at USC
Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 79.2% (down from 81.1%)
All-time series | USC leads 13-10-1
Projected running record | 7-1
Nov. 7 vs. Oregon
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 83.0% (up from 80.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-2
Projected running record | 8-1
Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.3% (up from 87.9%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1
Projected running record | 9-1
Nov. 21 at Nebraska
Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 73.5% (down from 76.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-1
Projected running record | 10-1
Nov. 28 vs. Michigan
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 91.6% (down from 92.4%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 11-1
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State updated ESPN game-by-game schedule predictions after Week 6
