It's the matchup of the season so far in college football as No. 4 Ohio State heads on the road to face No. 5 Indiana in a rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship, a matchup that has the last two national champions.
Indiana, which hasn't lost at home in two and a half seasons since Curt Cignetti took over in 2024, will enter the matchup as a slight underdog to the Buckeyes.
While Ohio State began the season as the top-ranked team in the country, an early-season loss at Texas and some inconsistent play throughout the early season have left a few question marks around the potential of this group. A win on Saturday would go a long way in building the necessary confidence inside the locker room, and cement itself as one of the clear favorites
in the College Football Playoff national championship hunt.
While everyone is going to look at some of the names like Jeremiah Smith, Charlie Becker, Nick Marsh, Julian Sayin, and Josh Hoover, the game will be decided in a few specific areas -- not just by the performance of some key players for both teams.
So what are the key stats to keep an eye on heading into the matchup? Let's break it down.
8.2 Tackles For Loss Per Game
Daley has had four sacks over the last two games. I wrote about him rounding into form as he finally has (some) clarity on his legal standing:https://t.co/guvoAm58bI https://t.co/56AmQzMo3t
— Dylan Sinn (@DylanSinn) October 11, 2026
Again, everyone knows what Jeremiah Smith will bring to the field, but it's the rushing attack that raises some questions for the Buckeyes. Will it be the good or the bad running game that travels to Bloomington? It needs to be the former, as Indiana brings in one of the top rushing defenses in the country yet again.
The Hoosiers are giving up just 75 yards a game on the ground, ranked No. 7 in the nation, while Ohio State ranks just No. 60 in the country, averaging 165.7 yards a game. There's even more importance on getting some early-down yardage as Indiana comes in averaging 8.2 tackles for loss a game, nearly four more than what Ohio State's offensive line gives up. Indiana is led by Tobi Osunsanmi, who leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss, while Stephen Daley is coming on strong in the last three weeks and regaining his form from last year when he finished with 19.5 tackles for loss. That's led to Indiana allowing just 2.3 yards per carry on the season.
Ryan Day has emphasized the rushing attack and wants his running backs to run 'aggressively.' Ja'Kobi Jackson has averaged over 5.0 yards a carry in each of the last four games, while Bo Jackson hasn't been over 5.0 yards a carry against a Power 4 opponent this year. The Buckeyes need balance, and it'll start with how effective they can be running against this IU defense.
20 More Penalties
Ohio State has four pre-snap penalties in a little more than one quarter of play
— Land-Grant Holy Land (@Landgrant33) October 10, 2026
Sloppy sloppy sloppy
One of the reasons why Indiana has been so effective over the last two years is due to the ability it has to avoid mental mistakes and beating itself. That's no different this year. Through six weeks, Indiana ranks No. 4 in the nation in fewest penalties. The Hoosiers have just 20 for 173 yards, averaging just 28 yards of penalties a game. They went 6+ quarters in Big Ten play without having a penalty.
On the flip side, Ohio State comes in No. 87 nationally, averaging nearly seven penalties for 54 yards a game -- with 20 more penalties than Indiana on the season.
Mental toughness will likely be the deciding factor in this one. How long can each team continue to push without giving in? There will certainly be some flags throughout the afternoon, but which team can limit them the most will go a long way in determining the outcome of Saturday's showdown.
10.9 Yards Per Attempt
Someone other than Jeremiah Smith is going to need to step up this week.
— Hoody (@TheHoody27) October 12, 2026
You can bet Cignetti will have a plan to slow him down. This is Julian Sayin's chance to prove he can spread the ball around.
A Brock Boyd TD or a Brandon Inniss legacy game would be nice. pic.twitter.com/U6sKLLdbas
Now to the duo that everyone wants to talk about: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes have one of the best connections college football has seen in years, if not closer to decades. Smith has broken nearly every Ohio State record and is close to numerous Big Ten records, already with 916 yards on the season and 19.1 yards per catch. How does that come into play? Ohio State's passing attack is always downfield, as Sayin averages 10.9 yards per attempt, ranked No. 1 nationally. The Hoosiers weakest link defensively? Their secondary.
Indiana has given up numerous big plays down the field to teams that don't have significant downfield threats. That changes on Saturday with Smith, whose 19.1 yards per catch rank top-20 nationally, and Sayin's 295 yards per game rank No. 5.
If the Buckeyes can continue to find success down the field, they'll not only be able to move the ball with ease, but they'll also be able to use the pass to set up the run and open the playbook that way. If Indiana limits the Buckeyes' passing attack, it would completely halt the Ohio State offense.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: 3 stats that will determine the outcome of Ohio State vs. Indiana
