There are still three weeks to go in the regular season for Ohio State football, and despite what many have said and what we may have all thought, there is still a surprisingly realistic path for the Buckeyes to get to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game. And, if that happens, a win would mean an automatic qualification into the College Football Playoff.
Here's how it would play out, and it has everything to do with the tiebreakers used in the Big Ten. That's because Ohio State projects to win the tiebreaker in many scenarios if there is a quagmire of two-loss conference teams in second place. If USC and Indiana both lose one more game (they play each other this weekend), and the Buckeyes win their three remaining games, Ohio State projects to get
the nod to play UCLA if the Bruins remain undefeated or have just one loss.
It gets complicated, and you might need a compass, calculator, and protractor to figure it all out, but you can head over to bball.nothing.net to simplify it a bit. Just for looking at the path ahead, USC has games at Indiana, vs. Maryland, and at UCLA. The ESPN "matchup predictor" projects the Trojans to lose against Indiana and beat Maryland and UCLA.
For Indiana, the chances are a bit more unrealistic. The Hoosiers are favored to win each of their last three games, USC at home, at Washington, and vs. Purdue to end things in Bloomington. However, with a quarterback problem and so many close games this year already, sometimes in unexpected ways, it's nowhere near impossible to see a scenario where Indiana loses to the Trojans or at Washington, a historically tough place to play.
Is Ohio State going to make the College Football Playoff? Probably not. The at-large path appears to be gone, but there’s still a long-shot path to the Big Ten Championship.
— TJ Warner (@TJwarner_) November 9, 2026
Here’s what needs to happen:
1.) Ohio State wins out.
2.) USC beats Indiana.
3.) UCLA beats USC.
4.)… pic.twitter.com/e8BnKeEMJl
There could be a silver lining in all of this even if Ohio State just misses the Big Ten Championship game. ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor has the Buckeyes with a 56% chance of still getting into the CFP if it simply wins out and sits at home. And that is without some additional surprises we are more than likely to see with teams above the Buckeyes over the next four weeks.
For now, we'll keep our fingers, (Buck)eyes, and toes crossed and follow this every week.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State path to Big Ten champioship game is easier than you think
