ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson football vs. California

The Clemson Tigers are hoping to make it three straight wins when they hit the road for a first in program history. Clemson travels to Berkeley for its first-ever matchup against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. The Tigers and Bears have met only once before. On New Year's

College Sports

SEE ALL

SB Nation

The Daily Mauling 9.23.26

Ducks Wire

Oregon aiming to extend win streak vs. USC in series history

For the Win

What happened to Chris Spatola? What we know about ESPN voice, Coach K son-in-law

What is the story about?

The Clemson Tigers are hoping to make it three straight wins when they hit the road for a first in program history. Clemson travels to Berkeley for its first-ever matchup against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium.

The Tigers and Bears have met only once before. On New Year's Day 1992, Cal soundly defeated Clemson, 37-13, in the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Now the two programs are fellow ACC members.

Clemson (2-1 overall, 1-0 conference) is coming off a 28-20 come-from-behind victory over North Carolina at Memorial Stadium in Week 3. Tait Reynolds completed 20 of his 29 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown and one interception. He completed his final seven passes for 115 yards.

The Tigers scored two touchdowns in the

final 5:01 to finish off a victory in a game they trailed 17-3 in the second quarter.

Cal (2-1, 1-0) defeated the Wagner Seahawks, an FCS team, 49-7, after winning its ACC opener at Syracuse in Week 2. Second-year Bears starting quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw 3,454 yards last season, has thrown for 866 yards in three games this season.

Cal is lead by first-year coach Tosh Lupoi, the former Oregon defensive coordinator under Dan Lanning and a longtime Nick Saban assistant at Alabama.

Will Clemson football win at Cal? ESPN's prediction

Oddsmakers have Clemson as a one-point favorite over California, but ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday's games.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Clemson a 60.3% chance to win. Cal has a 39.7% chance.

The Tigers rose to No. 42 overall in ESPN's FPI, up four spots from last week. Clemson is ninth among ACC teams in the FPI with a 6.1 overall FPI rating (up from 5.3 last week). California has a minus-1.5 rating that's 73rd nationally in ESPN's metrics.

Clemson football updated odds of reaching bowl game, ACC title game

In ESPN's FPI entering Week 4, Clemson chances of reaching six wins to qualify for a bowl game are 73.6%, up from 58% last week. The Tigers' chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are 2.3%, which is down from 22.2% entering the season.

The Tigers are given a 0.9% chance of winning the ACC championship, down from 12.1% entering the season.

Clemson is one spot behind TCU in the overall FPI and one spot ahead of Vanderbilt.

What are ESPN FPI ratings?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Clemson football at California start time, TV channel information

TV channel, commentators for Clemson football vs. California

📸 Ashley Tumlin, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect https://t.co/glQkX62jw3 pic.twitter.com/Lddxvxm1ji
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) September 22, 2026

Kickoff for Clemson-Cal in Week 4 of the 2026 college football season is 10:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 25 at California Memorial Stadium. The game can be seen on ESPN. Mike Monaco and Jordan Rodgers will have the call of the game. Dana Boyle will report from the sidelines.