ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson football vs Miami Hurricanes

The Clemson Tigers face one of their toughest opponents of the 2026 college football season in Week 5. Dabo Swinney's team hosts Heisman hopeful Darian Mensah and the Miami Hurricanes at Memorial Stadium. Miami (4-0 overall, 2-0 ACC) is ranked No. 4 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25; Clem

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What is the story about?

The Clemson Tigers face one of their toughest opponents of the 2026 college football season in Week 5. Dabo Swinney's team hosts Heisman hopeful Darian Mensah and the Miami Hurricanes at Memorial Stadium.

Miami (4-0 overall, 2-0 ACC) is ranked No. 4 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25; Clemson (3-1, 2-0) is unranked.

Coach Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes lead the nation in total offense with 2,355 yards through four games (588.8 per game) and are averaging 51.8 points per game, which ranks third. Miami is second nationally in total defense with 224.5 yards allowed per game.

Mensah is tied with Jayden Maiava of Southern California for the most passing touchdowns with 14 and is seventh in passing yards (1,211). He's also rushed for 52 yards on

nine attempts. The Hurricanes are coming off a 52-3 win over Central Michigan in Week 4.

Clemson enters Week 5 coming off its third straight win, a 24-10 rock fight against the California Golden Bears in Berkeley. The Tigers broke a 10-10 tie in the third quarter when Bryant Wesco Jr. returned a punt 65 yards for a touchdown. Gideon Davidson put the game out of reach with a 75-yard touchdown run on a third-and-8 play with just under three minutes to play.

Clemson quarterback Tait Reynolds was held to 108 yards on 13 of 21 passing with an interception. The defense turned in its best performance of the season, though, limiting Cal to 231 total yards and holding quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to a career-low 119 yards. Clemson's defense forced two interceptions courtesy of cornerback Elliot Washington II.

Clemson’s Dabo Swinney shares injury update on starting CB ahead of Miami

📸 Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network , USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co https://t.co/q5ru17z20W pic.twitter.com/UeamP50LwZ
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) September 29, 2026

Can Clemson football pull stunning upset of No. 4 Miami? ESPN's prediction

Oddsmakers have Miami as a 17.5-point favorite over Clemson, but as always, ESPN Analytics has its own odds for Saturday's game.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, those odds aren't much better.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, gives Miami an 87.4% chance to win. Clemson has a 12.6% chance.

The Tigers rose to No. 40 overall in ESPN's FPI, up two spots from last week. Clemson is eighth among ACC teams in the FPI with a 7.4 overall rating (up from 6.1 last week). Miami has a 25.7 rating that's fifth nationally in ESPN's metrics.

Clemson football odds of reaching bowl game, ACC title game after three straight wins

In ESPN's FPI entering Week 5, Clemson's chances of reaching six wins to qualify for a bowl game stand at 89.9%, a sharp increase from 73.6% last week. The Tigers' chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are 4.1%, which is up from 2.3% last week but down from 22.2% entering the season.

The Tigers are given a 1.5% chance of winning the ACC championship, up slightly from 0.9% last week but down from 12.1% entering the season.

Clemson is one spot behind Baylor in the overall FPI and one spot ahead of Wisconsin.

ACC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI: surprise team rises to No. 2

Sep 26, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Bryan Hamilton (22) and quarterback Holden Geriner (15) celebrate after combining for a touchdown completion against the Bucknell Bison during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pitt football's 4-0 start, which included a 59-0 shutout win over Bucknell in Week 4, has the Panthers up to No. 2 in ESPN's weekly college football power index of ACC teams. Pitt faces Miami on Oct. 24 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Louisville, which had risen to No. 2 after the Cardinals' 41-31 win over SMU in a top-25 showdown, fell three spots after suffering a 30-27 upset loss at home to Wake Forest in Week 4. The Demon Deacons, who are 3-1 with only a 33-20 loss to Miami on their résumé, saw a bump in the FPI.

There's still a big leap between Miami and the rest of the pack in the ACC, but here is where Clemson and all 17 conference teams rank in ESPN's FPI:

17. Stanford Cardinal (-5.7 FPI)
16. Boston College Eagles (-4.8 FPI)
15. California Golden Bears (-2.1 FPI)
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (0.0 FPI)
13. Syracuse Orange (0.6 FPI)
12. NC State Wolfpack (2.7 FPI)
11. North Carolina Tar Heels (5.3 FPI)
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6.0 FPI)
9. Florida State Seminoles (6.6 FPI)
8. Clemson Tigers (7.4 FPI)
7. Virginia Tech Hokies (8.9)
6. SMU Mustangs (9.1 FPI)
5. Louisville Cardinals (10.8 FPI)
4. Duke Blue Devils (10.9 FPI)
3. Virginia Cavaliers (11.8 FPI)
2. Pitt Panthers (13.5 FPI)
1. Miami Hurricanes (25.7 FPI)

What are ESPN FPI ratings?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Clemson football vs. Miami start time, TV channel information

TV commentators, multiple channels to show Clemson football vs. Miami

📸 Adam Hagy, USA TODAY Sports https://t.co/YHm7N3pjT1 pic.twitter.com/jyp0h12tHL
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) September 29, 2026

Kickoff for Clemson-Miami in Week 5 of the 2026 college football season is 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Clemson Memorial Stadium. The game can be seen on ABC, with an alternate "Command Center" viewing option available on ACC Network. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will have the call of the game. Holly Rowe will report from the sidelines.

All times Eastern.