Clemson is heading into one of the most unusual home games of the Dabo Swinney era.
Both the Tigers and No. 6 Miami are 2-0 in ACC play, but oddsmakers see a massive gap between the two teams. The Hurricanes have been installed as 17.5-point favorites for next Saturday’s matchup in Death Valley at 7:30 PM.
For Clemson, a number like that at home is almost unheard of.
The Tigers have spent most of Swinney’s tenure on the other side of spreads like this, particularly when playing inside Memorial Stadium. Since 2013, the largest home underdog spread Clemson has faced is just three points. That happened against Florida State in 2013 and Notre Dame in 2023.
Those games produced very different results. Florida State rolled to a 51-14 victory in 2013,
while Clemson knocked off Notre Dame 31-23 a decade later.
Even getting double-digit points has been a rarity for the Tigers regardless of location. Clemson has been a double-digit underdog only five times since 2013. The Tigers lost all five, covering the spread only once, and their average margin of defeat in those games was 23 points.
The computers aren’t giving Clemson much of a chance to change that history, either. ESPN’s Football Power Index currently puts the Tigers’ win probability at just 14.8 percent.
What makes the spread even more striking is how much the outlook has changed since the offseason. Early lines had Miami favored by roughly a touchdown. That gap has more than doubled as the season has unfolded.
Clemson did help itself with Saturday’s trip to California. The Tigers traveled more than 2,000 miles and came away with a 24-10 victory over Cal after entering as only a 2.5-point favorite.
Kickoff time, TV channel for Clemson football vs Miami in Week 5
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) September 27, 2026
📸 Ken Ruinard, USA TODAY Sports https://t.co/Zx965xdLel pic.twitter.com/gyrO7BT0ov
Miami has done little to slow down the hype surrounding its season. The Hurricanes moved to 4-0 Saturday with a 52-3 win over Central Michigan.
Unless the line moves considerably before kickoff, Clemson will enter the game as the biggest home underdog of the Swinney era. It may even be the largest spread the Tigers have faced at Death Valley since before their memorable 26-10 upset of No. 3 Florida State in 2003.
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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: Opening betting lines for Clemson’s home matchup against No. 6 Miami
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