ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson football vs. Florida State

For the second straight year, the Clemson Tigers head into their annual rivalry showdown against the Florida State Seminoles with both programs having seen better days. Dabo Swinney's team travels to Tallahassee in Week 9 of the 2026 college football season. Clemson (4-3, 3-2 ACC) is coming off a la

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What is the story about?

For the second straight year, the Clemson Tigers head into their annual rivalry showdown against the Florida State Seminoles with both programs having seen better days. Dabo Swinney's team travels to Tallahassee in Week 9 of the 2026 college football season.

Clemson (4-3, 3-2 ACC) is coming off a last-minute 20-16 loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies at Memorial Stadium. The Tigers led for much of the second half, but Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer led his team on an 11-play, 69-yard drive for the game-winning score with 1:44 to play.

Grunkmeyer's 5-yard touchdown pass to tight end Luke Reynolds on fourth-and-1 gave Virginia Tech its first win over Clemson in 19 years and dropped the Tigers to 2-8 in their last 10 home games against Power Four

opponents.

The offense struggled once again, netting only 288 total yards and going 3 of 14 on third downs. Freshman QB Tait Reynolds completed 20 of his 26 passes, but his average completion went for only 5.9 yards. The Tigers rank dead last in the ACC and just 115th nationally in total offense with 333.1 yards per game.

Clemson will face a Florida State (3-4, 1-3) team fresh off a bye, and one that should be playing with plenty of confidence. Mike Norvell's Seminoles took the top-ranked Miami Hurricanes into double overtime before falling 43-35 at Hard Rock Stadium on Oct. 17.

Fifth-year senior Ashton Daniels leads the Seminoles' passing attack and has 1,618 yards and 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions in seven games this season. Daniels threw four touchdown passes and rushed for another score in FSU's loss to Miami in Week 7.

Clemson has won nine of the last 10 meetings against Florida State dating back to 2015. Will the Tigers' run of dominance in the rivalry continue or end Saturday in Tallahassee?

Will Clemson football beat Florida State? ESPN's prediction

Oddsmakers have Florida State as a 6.5-point favorite over Clemson, but as always, ESPN Analytics has its own odds for Saturday's game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, doesn't favor the Tigers, either. It gives Florida State a 71.9% chance to win and Clemson a 28.1% chance.

The Tigers are 51st nationally in ESPN's FPI with a 5.8 rating, which ranks 11th among the 17 ACC teams. Florida State has a 10.1 FPI rating that's 37th nationally. The Tigers are one spot ahead of Kansas State (5.7) and one spot below Virginia (6.0).

Clemson football odds of reaching bowl game after brutal Week 7 loss to Virginia Tech

In ESPN's FPI entering Week 8, Clemson's chances of reaching six wins to qualify for a bowl game stand at 78.1%, down from 88.4% prior to its loss to Virginia Tech.

Clemson's chances of winning its final five games are just 2.1%, according to ESPN's FPI.

Dabo Swinney says Clemson’s offensive issues isn’t because of the roster

📸 Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network , USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co https://t.co/JLdYcNv6sR pic.twitter.com/E2yN8tsVgO
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) October 27, 2026

ACC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 9

Here is where Clemson and all 17 conference teams rank in ESPN's FPI:

17. Stanford Cardinal (-10.0 FPI)
16. California Golden Bears (-6.0 FPI)
15. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5 FPI)
14. NC State Wolfpack (0.0 FPI)
13. Boston College Eagles (0.2 FPI)
12. Syracuse Orange (1.6 FPI)
11. Clemson Tigers (5.8 FPI)
10. Virginia Cavaliers (6.0 FPI)
9. Virginia Tech Hokies (6.6 FPI)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (7.4 FPI)
7. Duke Blue Devils (7.6 FPI)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (8.7 FPI)
6. Pitt Panthers (8.6 FPI)
5. Florida State Seminoles (10.1 FPI)
4. SMU Mustangs (12.3 FPI)
3. Louisville Cardinals (13.6 FPI)
2. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15.1 FPI)
1. Miami Hurricanes (27.5 FPI)

What are ESPN FPI ratings?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Clemson football vs. Florida State start time, TV channel information

ESPN reveals TV announcers for Clemson football vs. Florida State

📸 Melina Myers, USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con https://t.co/FwdW4bXBOE pic.twitter.com/udtdmrBg5l
— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) October 27, 2026

Kickoff for Clemson-Florida State in Week 9 of the 2026 college football season is 7 p.m. ET Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The game can be seen on ACC Network. Wes Durham and Max Browne will have the call of the game. Madison Fitzpatrick will report from the sidelines.

The Clemson Athletic Network feed of the game featuring Tigers radio voices Don Munson, Tim Bourret and Jeff Scott can be heard on SiriusXM channel 258.