If the Dallas Cowboys expect to go anywhere this season it has to be on the back of a highly efficient offense. Everyone knows this. The defense, certifiably terrible for the second year in a row, has shown little sign of life. The offense has to be successful down in and down out because the team can’t afford to put the game in the defense’s hands.
But in Week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals, that’s exactly what the Cowboys did. Brian Schottenheimer refused to let matchups, logic or reason influence the way he was going to call a game and ultimately paid the price for it, losing 33-30 in overtime and falling to 3-5 on the season.
A week after garnering praise for his rediscovery of his running game, Schottenheimer stubbornly stuck to the same
formula despite all real-time data pointing him in an entirely different direction. The Cardinals, rather predictably, played the run well on Sunday. Against a top-ranked run defense, the Cowboys’ decision to stick with a run-heavy approach was difficult to justify or even understand.
Dallas’ run-pass distribution fell 39-29 in the running game’s favor; the Cowboys were successful on only 32 percent of those runs, garnering an EPA/rush average of -0.26. These numbers spread out over the course of a season would rank Dallas 31st in both EPA and success rate, yet, for some unexplainable reason, Schottenheimer stuck with it.
The passing game may not have been humming but if was extremely efficient. Dak Prescott had a 46 percent success rate on dropbacks, yielding a +0.19 EPA/dropback average. The passing game was everything the rushing game was not, but it mattered little for a team content with protecting a soft lead created in the first half.
Scoring only one touchdown in the second half, Dallas’ “just don’t lose” strategy came back to bite them in the butt. Their defense eventually caved, as is their nature these days, and the Cardinals charged back, tying the game in the final seconds of regulation and winning the game in overtime. By the time the Cowboys got the memo they need more points, the tide had already shifted.
Taking a pass-first approach to this Week 8 matchup was obvious for more than a couple reasons, yet the Cowboys refused, running the ball all the way to their fifth loss of the season. It was an inexcusable gameplan to install, as much as it was an inexcusable gameplan to stick to as the game unfolded. Teams with good defenses are allowed to get a lead and play not to lose. The Cowboys aren’t afforded that luxury.
It’s difficult to feel optimistic about a team that approaches games like this. The running game wasn’t supposed to work. Big offensive personnel like 12, 13 and 21 personnel wasn’t supposed to favor Dallas. To build a gameplan that benefits the opponent and to stick with it after it showed it clearly wasn’t working is a tough pill to swallow.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Schottenheimer’s stubborn offensive strategy doomed Cowboys from start
