The Cowboys may want to send their most storied rival a nice fruit basket or something. But they should do it ASAP, because the ray of hope provided by a surprise gracious gesture on Thursday night could be just as short-lived as that out-of-season produce.
The Commanders' last-minute 24-21 win over the NFC East-leading Giants to start Week 10 of the NFL schedule considerably tightened the race for the division crown and boosted the Cowboys' chances of salvaging the 2026 campaign with an unlikely playoff berth. With eight games left to play and four of the next six opponents among the league's top contenders, the 4-5 Cowboys currently have a 37% chance of making the postseason, according to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator.
Those aren't great
odds, to be sure, but that number is up from a 32% chance as recently as Wednesday, before Stefon Diggs's touchdown pass with 57 seconds to play at MetLife Stadium gave Washington a dramatic win over the now-5-3-1 Giants.
Dallas can wedge the door open even farther if they're able to pull off an upset of their own on Sunday versus 7-1 San Francisco. The Athletic's models say the Cowboys' chances at making the postseason bracket will increase to 50% with a win over the 49ers. A loss, however, would drop those odds to 28%.
This one game is basically the difference between drawing a spade out of a full deck of cards... or correctly calling heads on a coin flip.
Given the mediocre state of the NFC East, the only mathematically realistic way for the Cowboys to get into the dance is to win the division; second place likely won't earn a wild card. Under current rules, that would earn Dallas the right to host a first-round game at home, which could be a huge advantage against an opponent who will almost certainly have a better overall record.
Even more hopeful news? The NFC South appears to be just as lousy as the East this season, so the Cowboys could conceivably- and yet unbelievably- get into the bracket as a No. 3 seed, giving them an even more favorable matchup (if only slightly) that first weekend of playoff action.
Even with a win over San Francisco, the Cowboys would gain a little ground, but they'd still need to go on a run. A pair of seemingly winnable games- against the Titans and the Eagles- in Weeks 11 and 12 would raise Dallas's odds to 61% if they handle their business and take both contests.
That kind of cushion would be crucial with December clashes versus the Seahawks, Rams, and Jaguars coming down the pipeline, and it could set up Week 17's rematch with the Giants- in Arlington- as a possible winner-take-all showdown.
It all starts, though, with Week 10 and the 49ers.
For the Cowboys, it's technically not a must-win.
But it is the difference between having a real shot... and being a long shot.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys' playoff chances jump after Commanders' gift; Week 10 vs 49ers becomes critical
