The NFL is a passing league. Passing plays offer higher yards per snap, greater EPA per play and higher success rate than it’s black-and-blue brother, rushing attempts. Rules are tilted in favor of the forward pass and prediction markets are tied to a team’s proficiency with the forward pass.
With that said, the Dallas Cowboys need to run the ball more.
Not just run the ball more but be less predictable with their run-pass decision making. Everyone probably knows by now the Cowboys are last in run rate this season. They’re well aware the Cowboys are at the bottom in both rushing attempts (31st) and rushing yards (30th). But have people realized it’s down and distance predictability that might be killing them the most?
Once upon a time the NFL was
about beating the guy in front of you. Old school coaches spoke of bigger, stronger, faster players who executed better as the reason for success, and in many ways, they were right. But in the age of salary cap, free agency and overall parity, being “better” isn’t enough. Teams have to be smarter too and that falls on the coaches.
Teams track each other's tendencies now-a-days. They know when a certain team brings in 13 personnel it’s likely to be an outside zone run. Or maybe that on 3rd-and-10 it’s usually a comeback route outside the numbers. Or on 2nd-and-short there’s likely to be a deep shot downfield. Coaches have tendencies, and if they aren’t careful, those tendencies will become known and easy to plan for.
The Cowboys are dangerously close to becoming predictable and their decision making on certain downs and distances are the reason why.
The Cowboys biggest issue isn’t their run-pass balance but rather their predictability on 2nd-&-short and 3rd-&-short. Their predictable tendencies here make it easy for defenses to defend pic.twitter.com/s7hkOuRAy1
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) October 23, 2026
It's probably to the surprise of many that the Cowboys are only passing 2.4 percent over expected this season. It’s a shocking number considering their run-pass imbalance in 2026, but it’s an inevitable consequence of game circumstance. What jumps out as extremely problematic is how predictable the Cowboys are on 2nd-and-short and 3rd-and-short.
On 2nd-and-1-2, Dallas is expected to pass at a rate of 35.6 percent but instead they are passing at just 13.3 percent per RBSDM.com. That means 2nd-and-short is almost always a run. On the flip side, on 3rd-and-1-2, Dallas is passing a staggering +22.7 percent over expected. While it’s expected to be at a rate of 52.3 percent, Schottenheimer has his boys passing 75 percent of the time. Again, wildly unbalanced and extremely predictable.
Some of this falls on the shoulders of Dak Prescott as well since he’s making final calls at the line. How much blame goes where isn’t really important though; fixing a major problem with predictability is what’s important.
In 2025 the Cowboys didn’t have this issue. On 2nd-and-short Dallas passed at a rate of 1.1 percent under expected. On 3rd-and-short they passed at a rate of 2.6 percent over expected. Defenses looked at them in these situations and knew it could be either run or pass and had to play them accordingly. Defenses in 2026 don’t have to play them so honestly.
It’s possible the Cowboys don’t even know they’re being this transparent with their play-calling this year. But rest assured, defensive coordinators have taken notice.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys poor run-pass balance dwarfed by predictability consequences
