The Dallas Cowboys have been humming on offense in 2026. Dak Prescott is once again performing at an MVP level and WR CeeDee Lamb has injected himself into Offensive Player of the Year convos through the first quarter of the season. The Cowboys' 3.39 points per drive is at historic-pace levels
, and the club has to be feeling good after scoring four touchdowns on five second-half drives against a top-5 defense.And now, on a short week, returning home to AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys are getting a great opportunity. The club's Week 5 opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, struggle mightily guarding passes at intermediate depth (11-20 yards downfield). And now, they'll be without free safety Antoine Winfield, who will miss 2-4 weeks with a rib fracture.
Guess where Prescott, Lamb and the Cowboys excel?
When it comes to passing levels, the Cowboys have been playing it close to the vest in 2026. Out of their 144 pass attempts, 103 have been short, with 31 intermediate and 10 long shots. The intermediate area of the field, the region where a strong free safety is supposed to make the biggest difference, has been the honey pot for Prescott and Lamb over the years, and especially so in 2026.
According to Sumer Sports, Dallas boasts the following EPA per play at the three levels:
- Short (10 yards or less downfield): +0.211 EPA/target
- Intermediate (11-20 yards): +0.617 EPA/target
- Long (20+ yards): +1.077 EPA/target
Expected points added (EPA) is basically a way to measure how effective a single play is at increasing a team's chance of scoring on the drive. Positive EPA is great for offenses, bad for defenses.
Meanwhile the Bucs have already been struggling to cover the intermediate, even with a healthy Winfield.
- Short: -0.048 EPA/target
- Intermediate: +0.741 EPA/target
- Long: +0.298 EPA/target
That leads one to believe that, especially after watching Prescott spam Lamb with 21 targets in Week 4, they'll be especially cognizant of the threat. If they funnel extra coverage in an effort to compensate for losing Winfield, that could allow for some stellar opportunities for George Pickens down the field.
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Buc-Ease? Winfield injury should allow Cowboys offense to flow EPA
