When a team wins a hard-fought football contest, all questionable decisions are summarily forgiven. Sure, there are fans who hold onto certain moments that weren't done in the manner they saw fit, but in general, winning washes away all warts. But when a team loses? Every mistake is thoroughly scrutinized. And when a team loses in the inglorious fashion like the way the Dallas Cowboys fell to a winless Tampa Bay Bucs team on Thursday night? The microscope turns into a telescope.
So even though it didn't end up playing a pivotal role in the Cowboys 24-16 Week 5 loss, embattled head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been getting second-guessed left and right over his decision to go for two points midway through the fourth quarter. And for all of the mounds
and mountains of things that Schottenheimer continues to get wrong on game days, this was not one of them.
Schottenheimer deserves a TON of heat for his game-management blunders through his first 22 games as head coach, but he was absolutely right to attempt to score a two-point conversion following George Pickens' touchdown that cut the score to 24-16.
Not only is the logic sound at its core, the specific game flow of the contest didn't negate the math either.
The math behind going for two points
For those unfamiliar with the argument, here's the nutshell. When trailing by 14 points in the fourth quarter and when a team realistically will only get one more manageable possession, scoring two touchdowns with two extra points will only get them to overtime, at best.
Overtime is seen as a 50% chance of winning, a coin flip (with a literal coin flip).
However going for two points when now down 8, puts a team in position to win by scoring another touchdown and kicking the extra point. If the two-point conversion fails, a second two-point attempt still gives the same opportunity to push the game to overtime.
- The probability of making one 2-pt conversion is 48%
- The probability of making an extra point is 95%
- The probability of making at least one of the 2-pt conversions is 73% ( 1 - .522)
- Giving yourself a chance to win with two possessions, while having a 73% chance to still go to OT is a no brainer decision.
When adding in the fact that winning in overtime is a 50% chance, it makes even more sense. Assuming the second score, here's how the math works out.
- 2-pt try succeeds, next XP succeeds: 48% × 95% = 45.6% of the time you WIN
- First try fails, second try succeeds: 52% x 48% = 24.96% of the time you get OVERTIME
- First try succeeds, XP fails: 48% x 5% = 2.4% of the time you get OVERTIME
- Both 2-pt tries fail: 52% x 52% = 27.04% of the time you LOSE
Week 5 game flow supports the math, doesn't contradict it
The Cowboys were clearly exhausted following their back-to-back nail biters and travel schedule. They played lethargic and slow to react through the entire evening. They had been making mistakes all game and players were dropping like flies to injuries, came in point Tyler Guyton was lost on the play in question. Quarterback Dak Prescott was shaky all night, often off target. Miscues were plentiful.
Having a strategy to pull off three straight scoring drives in order to win, without giving up any points, was nonsensical.
The idea to just keep extending the game is outdated, but specifically in this contest it made zero sense. Dallas couldn't stop the run to save their lives; there was no reason to trust that defense could stop both of two more Buccaneer drives. And while they would normally be right to bet on their offense, this wasn't the game to do that either. The best strategy, simply based on the evidence of the prior 52 minutes, was to try and win the game with one successful two-point play, one more stop, and one more offensive drive.
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Why going for 2 points was right move for Cowboys in Week 5 loss to TB
