Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey attempted two 60+ yard field goals on Sunday against the Houston Texans. Both kicks were unsuccessful, with one missing wide left and the other dead on arrival, blocked in the backfield.
The misses set Houston's offense up beautifully, placing them on Dallas’ side of the field. Aubrey’s first failed attempt, a blocked 62-yarder, resulted in loss of 2.9 expected points. Given a field goal is worth three points, a -2.9 EPA consequence is a brutal pill to swallow. As luck would have Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn would turn Aubrey’s pain into his gain when he punched through a much closer field goal on the subsequent drive.
Later in the second quarter Aubry attempted an even deeper kick when he fired off a shot
from 65 yards out near the end of the half. His miss left :26 on the clock which was all Houston technically needed since they began their drive already in range. Just like the first miss by Dallas, the second one also led to a Texans field goal.
Will Anderson Jr. BLOCKS Brandon Aubrey’s FG attempt 😤👀 pic.twitter.com/sJ3vLosEpz
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 4, 2026
The analytics show the second miss by Aubrey resulted in -2.0 EPA even though it gave Houston the ball closer to their own endzone. It may sound strange but it speaks to the context of the situation which is the limited time on the clock.
In other words, there’s a time and a place, and while neither kick was truly advisable, a 60+ yard kick with less time – or better yet – no time, is much more attractive than a kick with plenty of time. The Cowboys’ first failed attempt still gave their opponent time to score a touchdown on a short field. The second was basically a gift-wrapped field goal without enough time to cash in for six.
The Cowboys might be thinking about these long-range field goals all wrong. While they may be within Aubrey’s range, the reward isn’t quite worth the risk; not when a made kick nets just three points and a miss gives the other team 2.9 in EPA.
Aubrey is 1-for-3 on 60+ yarders and 2-for-5 on all kicks over 50 yards. He’s good, but he’s not automatic given the blocking issues in front of him. To make 60+ yard attempts worth the risk, the clock needs to either be expiring or the situation dire in the late stages of the game.
Considering the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL, it makes sense to leave Dak Prescott and company on the field more often to go for it. It still risks turning the ball over in scoring range but at least it has bigger reward potential.
This situation isn’t going away so the Cowboys would be wise to reassess things and make sure their decisions have the proper reward to go with the risk.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys need to rethink long-distance FG strategy, Aubrey dependence
