Back in 2021, not many thought that Michigan football stood a chance to make the College Football Playoff, and that was when it was a field of four, rather than 12 as it is now. And yet, as people laughed at early prognostications, Michigan did make it, and the Wolverines started a three-year run which culminated in a national championship.
While the field has expanded, it does feel like an uphill battle for the maize and blue this year. It's Kyle Whittingham's first year leading a very young team in Ann Arbor, and the schedule is incredibly daunting. And yet, ESPN still sees a path for Michigan to make it in.
Here is what Heather Dinich said about the Wolverines on that front:
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It's not impossible for
the Wolverines to make a run in the first season under coach Kyle Whittingham, but with Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State all on the schedule, it would be a surprise.
Toughest test: Nov. 28 at Ohio State. No comment necessary.
What the committee will like: The No. 16 schedule in the country. It starts Week 2 with the home game against Oklahoma, and two weeks later Michigan hosts what could eventually be a CFP top 25 Iowa team. ESPN's FPI gives Michigan more than a 50% chance to win every game -- except for the Big Three (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana). If Michigan can beat Oklahoma and Iowa -- and they're both top-25 teams -- and the Wolverines pull off at least one upset against the Big Three, a two-loss Michigan would be a good bet for the CFP.
What the committee won't like: An 0-3 record against the Big Three. It's not that a three-loss team can't get into the CFP, but at some point, a team has to show the committee it can beat another playoff contender. The committee would consider how close the losses were -- what if they were in overtime, by a field goal, and by a touchdown? -- but Michigan would still be compared with other teams that have fewer losses and more wins against ranked opponents.
While we agree in theory with all of the above, we do think it's laughable that ESPN (not Dinich) has Michigan with the No. 16 schedule in the country. The host of schools ahead of the Wolverines features 14 SEC schools and Ohio State -- which, like Michigan, also plays an SEC school this season. Yet, the maize and blue play potential national champion Oregon and last year's national champion, Indiana. If Michigan emerges with a 10-2 or even 9-3 record, there's a strong chance that's a stronger resume than teams that have to play Arkansas, Missouri, and South Carolina.
This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: ESPN sees a path for Michigan to reach the playoffs
