MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 291 main event between welterweights Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott.
Joaquin Buckley UFC Fight Night 291 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 21-8 MMA, 11-6 UFC
- Height: 5'10" Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76"
- Last fight: Decision loss to Sean Brady (May 9, 2026)
- Camp: Finney's HIT Squad (St. Louis/Illinois)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- +/- 13-4 at welterweight
- +/- 7-4 at middleweight
- + 15 KO victories
- + 4 first-round finishes
- + Knockout power
- + Athletic and explosive mover
- ^ Blitzes in and out of range
- + Hard hooks and crosses
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- + Underrated/underutilized kicking ability
- + Strong inside the clinch
- + Solid first-layer defense
- ^ Good sprawls and underhook awareness
- + Serviceable transitional grappler
- ^ Works well from positive positions
Mike Malott UFC Fight Night 291 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 14-2-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC
- Height: 6'1" Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 73"
- Last fight: TKO win over Gilbert Burns(April 18, 2026)
- Camp: Niagara Top Team (Canada)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Regional MMA title
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Amateur kickboxing accolades
- + 6 KO victories
- + 6 submission wins
- + 9 first-round finishes
- + Knockout power
- + Works well off of rear-hip feints
- + Dexterous kicks from both stances
- ^ Variates looks and levels
- + Hard hooks and crosses
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- + Good trips/takedowns from the clinch
- + Strong grappler from topside
- +/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott point of interest: Exchanging in Edmonton
A real thinking man’s fighter, there’s a lot to like about the tactics and offensive triggers that Malott employs.
Although I still wish Malott mixed more jabs into his repertoire, the Canadian does a good job of working off feints and staying active at kicking range. Primarily working off rear hip feints or fo Thai march variations, Malott will use initial threats to advance into stance-shifting combinations.
One thing that allows Malott to use shifting entries effectively is that he establishes kicks from the open side first and then makes
sure to sell the kick before committing to the shift. pic.twitter.com/YQc2zcCYvy
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) April 14, 2026
While most fighters kick off of punches, Malott likes to punch off of kicks. And when fighters come in hot, Malott appears to have accurate counter hooks and crosses that he has hardwired into his mechanics (which could serve him well in this spot).
Still, Malott will need to be on his best behavior if he intends to trade with someone like Buckley.A self-made martial artist from St. Louis, Buckley appears to be built for the fight game. Not only can Buckley talk the talk, but the 32-year-old contender can also walk the walk in the way that he's willing to go to war with anyone on the roster.
Whether we're looking at Buckley's in-and-out movements or his natural aptitude for high-flying kicks, you'd be forgiven for assuming that "New Mansa" comes from a traditional martial arts background. Add in his healthy mix of slipping and ripping hooks, and Buckley makes for a dangerous package to deal with on the feet.
Buckley does have a tendency to load up heavily on linear advances, but the 12-year pro seems to do a better job of trying to step through or off of the centerline, sometimes shifting into an orthodox stance to gain a better angle a la Dustin Poirier.
Still, Buckley will need to be careful when it comes to getting too aggressive given his history when it comes to being countered.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Given the prominent role that it has traditionally played in the upper echelons of welterweight, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount for both parties this Saturday.
At first glance, you would think that Malott has more grappling motives in this matchup. However, after examining things a bit more, I suspect that Buckley could quietly be the more willing grappler in this equation.
Not only has the American attempted takedowns in 12 of his last 17 contests, but Buckley is undefeated in the octagon at 7-0 whenever he’s able to score a minimum of one completed takedown. Whether Buckley is hitting a reactionary double in the open or changing his level along the fence, double-legs appear to be his weapon of choice.
Defensively, Buckley prioritizes a strong first layer to help thwart advances.
Possessing strong hips and an athletic sprawl that he keeps on a hair-trigger, Buckley is good about shutting down shots that come his way in the open. And when Buckley is pressed against the cage, he applies solid underhook awareness that he utilizes to help hoist opponents off of his hips.
That said, Buckley can sometimes fail to cover the head, which can allow for directional changes and extended attacks from his opponent. Buckley has been a more aggressive scrambler from negative positions in the past, but seems to get more conservative about escape routes and exposure when tying up with superior on-paper grapplers.
Malott may not have as much of a statistical sample size to draw from in the wrestling department, but shooting on the Canadian has shown to be an act that is not without its risks.
A former longtime coach and fighter at Team Alpha Male, Malott has appeared to be a positive product of osmosis as far as his gravitation toward the guillotine choke. And in Malott’s recent win over Gilbert Burns, the 15-year pro showed sharp sprawls and solid hip awareness when shutting down the Brazilian’s shots.
Moreover, Malott has shown a good offensive grappling game, in general, since stepping into the octagon.
From a takedown perspective, Malott likes to work from over-unders in the clinch, where he shows serviceable trips and takedowns. And when Malott can get to topside, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt usually wastes little time in getting to work as far as advances and offense go.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the American as the favorite, the public has flipped the betting line in the Canadian’s favor, listing Malott -140 and Buckley +114 via FanDuel.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott prediction, pick
I can understand the line movement in Malott’s direction, but there’s no denying that Buckley is a live underdog in this spot.
Malott may technically be at the top of his game; I’m just not entirely sure where the ceiling of that game is. More importantly, I’m still not sure Malott has a reliable enough process for me to trust him against the upper echelon of this division.
Even though Malott has made some improvements regarding his jabbing presence, I noticed that he has a bad habit of giving back prime cage positions due to his propensity to play and stage offense along the outside. This habit has allowed Malott’s opponents back into the fight in both victory and defeat, and has become much more apparent in outings where Malott is extended.
I also noticed that Malott hasn’t exactly fared well in extended grappling exchanges either given how difficult the half-guard wrestle-up game of Neil Magny was for him. If Malott fails to defend Buckley’s takedown attempts and/or find his counters, then “Proper Mike” could find himself standing in a proper pile if this fight goes long.
Thankfully for Malott, the 34-year-old has shown that he’s still capable of making improvements.Say what you will about taking out a retiring fighter like Burns, Malott demonstrated some decent improvements to his pacing and process alike. And though it’s been over three years since we last saw Mallot strike with a southpaw, his style of shifting combos and counters appears to translate well in open-stance affairs.
Mike Malott, who faces Joaquin Buckley at #UFCEdmonton, is 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws (W: A. Fugitt)
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 16, 2026
Mike’s style of using established shots to setup shifting salvos seems to translate well in open-stance affairs. Not reliant on outside-foot awareness w/solid kick counters. pic.twitter.com/T7zuiPCZTK
Between both fighters’ contrasting momentum and Buckley’s history of eating opportunistic counters, I can’t help but favor Malott – especially early. An extended fight favors Buckley, whose chances, at least on paper, become deceptively higher if he can complete one or more takedowns on Malott.
It’s hard to be too confident in either side here, but I’ll officially pick Malott to land a left hook that leads to a stoppage by the end of Round 2.
Prediction: Malott inside the distance
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott start time, where to watch
As the main event, Buckley and Malott are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 10:40 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
Watch UFC Fight Night 291 with Paramount+
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott prediction, pick: UFC Edmonton headliner a tough call
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