MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 292's main event between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan.
Renato Moicano UFC Fight Night 292 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 21-7-1 MMA, 13-7 UFC
- Height: 5'11" Age: 37 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72"
- Last fight: Submission win over Chris Duncan (April 4, 2026)
- Camp: American Top Team/Kingdom Martial Arts (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Regional MMA titles
- + 2 KO victories
- + 10 submission wins
- + 4 first-round finishes
- + Consistent pace and pressure
- + Solid muay Thai technique
- ^ Hard leg kicks
- + Accurate hooks and uppercuts
- ^ Coming forward and off the counter
- + Developing a wrestling game
- ^ Strong from bodylock positions
- + Excellent transitional grappler
- + Always looks for the back
- ^ 10 wins by rear-naked choke
- +/- 3-3 against UFC-level southpaws
- +/- 3-1 inside the UFC Apex
Tom Nolan UFC Fight Night 292 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 11-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC
- Height: 6'3" Age: 26 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 73"
- Last fight: Decision win over Fares Ziam (June 6, 2026)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + 5 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 5 first-round finishes
- + Knockout power
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Dynamic southpaw striking flow
- ^ Connects/counter-balances kicks and punches
- + Hard kicks and knees from the rear
- ^ Varies looks and levels
- + Strikes well in and out of the breaks
- + Serviceable offensive wrestling
- + Solid transitional grappler
- ^ Active and attacking guard game
- + Good ground-and-pound from topside
- +/- 2-1 in the UFC Apex (3-1 w/DWCS)
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan breakdowon: Open-stance affair
The main event in Las Vegas features an impromptu booking between two ranked fighters who fight from opposite stances.
Renato Moicano, the orthodox fighter, has seen his fair share of southpaws in the octagon.
🧵 Renato Moicano, who faces Beneil Dariush at #UFC317, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Turner, Dober, BSD; L: RDA, Makhachev) He still jabs and uppercuts southpaws but mainly prefers to counter. Left-sided strikes and body shots (in both stances) are his common culprit: pic.twitter.com/t64aJBvArI
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 27, 2025
When Moicano finds himself in open-stance affairs, he does a decent job of utilizing his lead hand but primarily looks to counter, which seems to be a modus operandi many orthodox fighters resort to with these sorts of stance pairings. However, even though Moicano jabs and kicks the legs more in closed-stance affairs, the Brazilian veteran has proven that he’s not beyond mixing up his looks and levels.
Steadily developing a muay Thai arsenal early on in his career, Moicano can either stalk or stick and move, utilizing hard kicks from both sides. Striking in combination when feeling in stride, the 37-year-old does increasingly better at punching his way in and out of the pocket.
Whether Moicano is coming forward or countering, his hook, cross and uppercut triggers appear to be deeply rooted, committing to a response each time. That said, Moicano will need to be careful when committing against a southpaw like Nolan.
A dynamic striker who can fluidly connect his offense, Nolan is a natural when it comes to counter-balancing his kicks and punches with one another. From crosses that counter-balance kicks to over-thrown punches that parlay into spins, Nolan can get quite creative when operating in his flow state.
Though Nolan can spin a bit too much for my liking, the 26-year-old offers a fully-fledged southpaw striking game as far as the fundamental strikes that he builds off of. Mixing between tools like teep kicks to knees, Nolan smartly establishes his presence to the body before committing up high with head kicks.
Nolan is also active with his strikes in and out of the breaks, but the Aussie will need to be careful crashing into closed quarters with someone like Moicano.
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering Moicano’s speciality of finishing fights on the floor, dictating the grappling traffic will be paramount for both parties this Saturday.
Since moving up to the UFC’s lightweight division, Moicano has become a much more aggressive grappler. He still shows the level-changing shots wielded at featherweight, but the American Top Team product arguably gets a bulk of his work done from the clinch.
🧵🪡🧵🪡🧵
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 26, 2024
Renato Moicano demonstrating my favorite two-way takedown chain in MMA: making an opponent pick their poison of leg positioning between Polish throws and hip toss variations…
a short THREAD on this series (and some of its counters) in MMA: pic.twitter.com/JQQ6AdCnxL
Favoring the bodylock position, Moicano likes to combo his threats that range from shuck-bys to the back, to Polish-style, step-around takedowns that force his opponents to pick their poison. That said, failed attempts could lead him into stymying clinch scenarios with a taller fighter like Nolan.
As we saw in the Australian’s last fight with Fares Ziam, Nolan can be an annoying customer who also appears to do his best takedown work from the clinch.
Although Nolan has an active reactive shot that he initiates quite well for a tall man, the six-year pro has a tendency to kill his own momentum for takedown finishes due to his propensity to shoot onto his knees. However, when Nolan is able to establish a body lock, he demonstrates strong shuck-bys that lead to lifts.
When operating from topside, Nolan’s frame and striking proclivities parlay well into effective ground-and-pound. That said, “Big Train” can sometimes get a bit too excited when transitioning for submissions in a way that costs him position.
Nolan may have an active striking and submission game off his back, but his scrambling style involves a solid amount of back exposure that could get him into trouble against a grappler like Moicano.
Making hay from positive positions and persuading opponents to give their backs via ground-and-pound, Moicano, who is currently tied at third with fighters like Kenny Florian and Brendan Allen for all-time rear-naked choke wins in the UFC, has proven why he’s firmly ranked in MMA Junkie's Top 10 rear-naked choke artists in MMA.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt primed to get behind his opposition, Moicano needs very little daylight to get to his preferred kill zone. And once Moicano can establish his presence from the rear, he shows incredibly slick grip deconstructions that smoothly cut through his victim’s defenses like a hot knife going through butter.
Watch UFC Fight Night 291 with Paramount+
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan odds
The oddsmakers and the public practically have this fight as a pick’em, listing Moicano -120 and Nolan -104 via FanDuel.
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan prediction, pick
Considering where both fighters are in their respective careers, I have no issue with a tight line for a matchup that feels like a toss-up between a potential crossroads bout and a ‘levels’ fight.
Nolan, who has switched over to City Kickboxing ahead of this fight, is at the point in his young career where we can still expect potential fight-to-fight improvements from him. And though I never expect too many drastic changes from a fighter fresh off a camp switch, I suspect that the feint-heavy CKB approach will only help an aggressive operator like Nolan when it comes to both mitigating his opponent’s counter opportunities and better disguising his own offense.
City Kickboxing has also quietly upped their MMA wrestling over the years, so I’ll be curious to see if they smartly have Nolan prioritizing underhooks against a fighter like Moicano. Should Nolan limit his back exposure in transit with said tools, then the Australian’s striking arsenal – especially to the body – could produce some big moments considering that left-sided strikes are Moicano’s common culprit.
All things considered, a Nolan win wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. However, despite Nolan clearly having a higher ceiling as an action fighter at this point in their careers, I’m still not totally sold on the 26-year-old prospect.
Credit to the win streak Nolan has been able to put together, I just think it’s a tricky run when it comes to how much stock you want to put in it.
Aside from the fact that the majority of fighters on his recent resume are on losing streaks, Nolan has been rocked or dropped in a deceptive number of his UFC outings, win or lose. Nolan’s fights with Viacheslav Borshchev and Ziam were also much closer than credited for as well.
If Nolan doesn’t show improved footwork and takedown defense fundamentals from Jump Street, then I suspect that Moicano can find ways to his win conditions in the smaller cage of the Apex.
Whether we’re talking about Moicano’s ability to counter kicks or Nolan’s outright counterability (due to his inherent ‘tall man defense’), the striking realm is more of a potent two-way street than some suspect. Add in the back exposure that seems hardwired into Nolan’s scrambling responses, and I can’t help but back the more proven product in this spot.
Moicano may be a left-sided-strike magnet in these sorts of matchups, but he’s also shown that he can dig deep and firmly flip fortunes if his opposition fails to finish him. I’m expecting improvements from the Nolan side; I just can’t trust his propensity to flow recklessly and allow for clinches in his fights.
The official pick is for Moicano to find his patented rear-naked choke by the end of Round 2.
Prediction: Moicano inside the distance
Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan start time, how to watch
As the main event, Moicano and Nolan are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 10:40 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan pick, prediction, time, odds | UFC
