MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 290 main event between middleweights Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan.
Brendan Allen UFC Fight Night 290 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 27-7 MMA, 15-4 UFC
- Height: 6'2" Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75"
- Last fight: Decision win over Edmen Shahbazyan (June 6, 2026)
- Camp: VFS Academy (Chicago)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + LFA middleweight titles
- + IMMAF/amateur MMA accolades
- + 6 KO victories
- + 14 submission wins
- + 11 first-round finishes
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Steadily improved striking
- ^ Sharper techniques and combinations
- + Hard kicks and knees
- + Strong inside the clinch
- ^ Serviceable takedown ability
- +Excellent grappler from topside
- ^ Dangerous rear-naked choke artist
- +/- 7-2 in the Apex (8-2 including DWCS)
Christian Leroy Duncan UFC Fight Night 290 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 15-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC
- Height: 6'2" Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 79"
- Last fight: Decision win over Jared Cannonier(July 18, 2026)
- Camp: Range Martial Arts Academy (England)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Cage Warriors middleweight title
- + IMMAF/amateur MMA accolades
- + 10 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 5 first-round finishes
- + Knockout power
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Creative, free-flowing striker
- ^ Favors spinning and shifting attacks
- + Dynamic kicks and explosive knees
- + Avid clinch fighter
- ^ Collar ties, elbows and knees
- + Serviceable grappling ability
- ^ Steadily improving/shows good grip awareness +/- 4-1 in the Apex
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan point of interest: Middleweight maelstrom
The more fundamental striker of the two, Allen brings a more meat-and-potatoes approach on the feet.
Allen, akin to his current counterpart, came into the octagon with a proclivity to punch into collar-tie opportunities that allowed openings for the American to land knees. However, after spending some years training with Henri Hooft and company down at Kill Cliff FC, Allen was able to smooth out some of the harder edges to his game and build upon more solid fundamentals.
With improved kicks and combinations, Allen has shown to be
an effective striker regardless of his opponent’s stance. And since moving shop to Chicago to work with Belal Muhammad and the Valle Flow Striking crew, Allen has displayed some much sharper boxing looks on feet.
3-2-3 starting to the body is a very reliable combo if you have a jab that doesn't make the opener hook super obvious. Yet remains rarely used in MMA. pic.twitter.com/b4kdQJLi3y
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) October 5, 2026
From improved feints and frames with his lead to his ability to get behind his shoulders, Allen showed off some solid improvements last time out against a well-prepared Edmen Shahbazyan. That said, Allen can still play things a bit fast and loose for my liking – which could be dangerous against an opportunist like Duncan.
A natural martial artist who came across MMA later in life, Duncan has taken to fighting like a duck takes to water.
Although you could argue that there’s an underlying anxiousness that fuels his style, Duncan can seamlessly flow through phases like a savant when he's feeling himself. From shifting kicks that connect to combinations to Thai-style handtraps that allow him to fold elbows over frames, “CLD” can be a tricky customer to get a beat on.
Even though Duncan spins for elbows a bit too much for my liking, the English fighter is so fluid and proficient with the technique that they almost work in a similar fashion to how wrestlers get respect with takedown fakes to help open up their offense. And as soon as Duncan even gets an inkling of a level change coming back his way, the 31-year-old keeps spring-loaded knees on a hair trigger that can absolutely ruin the night of any man at middleweight.
Duncan also appears to be smartly shoring up some of his holes at boxing range, displaying improved punching mechanics in short bursts (primarily when he has his opposition hurt, oddly enough). Nevertheless, Duncan, too, is not beyond being countered for his sometimes carefree attitude and will need to be careful when it comes to relying on his impressive reactive instincts as the fight wears on.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan breakdown: Clinch country
Considering that the biggest on-paper disparity between these two lies on the floor, I believe that the clinch will be a key junction in this fight.
Despite Duncan being the more dynamic and dangerous clinch fighter who can flow to and from the position more smoothly, the Englishman arguably has the most to lose by playing in this space. But with the clinch clearly being a comfort zone for Duncan with how he uses it as almost a pressure-release valve in fights, closed-quarter combat is all but guaranteed this weekend.
Although Duncan, akin to Allen, can bend a bit too much at the back when searching for takedowns, he has shown offensive improvements along the cage in recent fights. And from a defensive perspective, Duncan has also shown some upgrades.
No one complains about fighters posting with their arms if they’re able to get away with it and make it look cool pic.twitter.com/LBUCrIGxlt
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 8, 2026
Even if I’d still like to see more priority on underhooks from him, Duncan demonstrates a better understanding in over-under exchanges and smartly utilizes hand-fighting techniques like 2-on-1 wrist controls to stymie takedown attempts coming his way. Duncan also appears to have a crafty turtle game that I can really appreciate, but the back exposure involved in both that game and his scrambling style could send out some unwanted invitations Allen’s way.
A dogged grappler since Day 1, the Louisianian is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who operates with the vigor of a blue belt at their first tournament.
Whether Allen is abandoning positions for risky submissions or opting for rear-naked choke attempts without any hooks in, "All-in" has proven that he can live up to his nickname and find success no matter how gritty things get. And since working with the large stable at Kill Cliff FC, Allen has gotten better at both maintaining positions, as well as doing more damage with strikes from topside in recent years.
Now, working with the likes of Belal Muhammad and company over in Chicago, I’ll be curious to see if Allen can show more progress and consistency when it comes to connecting that part of his game more fluidly and effectively.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan odds
Despite the oddsmakers setting the betting line wider in favor of the American, public money has come trickling in on the Englishman, listing Allen -134 and Duncan +110 via FanDuel.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction, pick
Although I’m more in line with the 2-1 openers on Allen, I can understand why money is coming in on the underdog.
Aside from England traditionally being a country that backs their guys hard at the betting window, Allen, as alluded to above, has not exactly been the most consistent fighter in victory or defeat. And even though Allen has steadily improved his skills during his UFC tenure, he still lacks the phase-changing connectivity to it that I suspect is causing his lack of consistency and functionality.
Luckily for Allen, he might not need much of an improved takedown game against a fighter like Duncan in the Apex.
Not only does the smaller octagon encourage the kind of action that gives grapplers a healthy amount of opportunities to feast on, but Duncan, as mentioned previously in the striking portions of this breakdown, has a propensity to both clinch and spin that should give a fighter like Allen plenty of potential openings to work with.
Don’t get me wrong: This fight, akin to Allen’s last fight, comes with some serious trap-fight feels attached, so no one should be too shocked if Duncan is able to simultaneously pull out the upset and add to his highlight reel in the process.
However, if Duncan is not able to seriously hurt Allen within the seven-minute mark of this contest, I suspect that the proverbial pendulum will start to swing heavily in favor of a Louisiana native down the stretch due to the energy-intensive style that the English fighter brings to the table. The official pick is for Allen to find a submission by the third or fourth frame of this fight.
Prediction: Allen inside the distance
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan start time, where to watch
As the main event, Allen and Duncan are expected to walk out to the cage at approximately 10:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
Watch UFC Fight Night 290 with Paramount+
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction, pick: Who wins key middleweight clash?
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