The Green Bay Packers are set to take on a backup quarterback for the second straight week, as Tyson Bagent is expected to start for the Chicago Bears on Sunday despite Caleb Williams’ surprising "questionable" status designation after practicing on a limited basis on Friday.
If it is Bagent under center, the Packers will have been handed a gift they must take advantage of as they look for their first home win and first divisional win of the season, even if Bagent put in an impressive performance last week.
Here are three thoughts on Green Bay’s defense against Chicago’s offense:
Can Green Bay defend the run out of nickel?
Last week the Packers were in nickel on over 93% of snaps yet were still able to effectively defend the run and not allow the Buccaneers to stay in comfortable down and distances.
By not overcommitting to the run but still limiting its effectiveness, they made life more difficult for backup quarterback Jalon Daniels, who was not handed easy looks to pass against. Can the Packers do the same this week?
It will be tough against Ben Johnson’s rushing attack, even though they are without Kyle Monangai, but if Green Bay lives in base defense and heavy boxes all day, it could make passing the ball too easy for Tyson Bagent.
Interestingly, the Bears are only using 11 personnel are the 29th highest rate in the league, yet they have been much more effective running (1st in EPA/rush) and passing the ball out of it (4th in EPA/pass) than they have from 12 (19th in EPA/play) or 13 personnel (24th in EPA/play).
If the Bears do come out in heavy personnel, will Jonathan Gannon feel more comfortable staying in nickel to defend against potential explosive passes and trust they can still hold up against a run game which has been less impactful (21st in EPA/rush) in the last three games?
Can the pass rush get home?
Gannon has done a good job of manufacturing pressure so far, and he may have to resort to it again on Sunday as the Packers face a strong offensive line anchored by a right side featuring Darnell Wright and Jonah Jackson, who have PFF grades of 92 and 84.8 in 2026.
Williams was averaging 3.28 seconds to throw before his injury, whereas Bagent is down at 2.68 seconds. His pressure to sack rate is 9.1% compared to 15.2%.
The Packers may need to send extra pressure to get to the quarterback in time and also disguise well on the back end to cause confusion and make him hold the ball a tick longer.
There is not as much threat of Bagent breaking contain and punishing the Packers off script, as his scramble rate is just 2.8%, whereas Williams was up at 18.4%.
Gannon can afford to be less conservative, but if the Bears are using the run game to stay ahead of the sticks and setting up play action, it will be harder to fully commit to an aggressive strategy.
Limit yards after the catch
After Week 1, Chicago’s short pass rate shot up from 57.7% to 71.6%, which is seventh highest in the league, and their screen rate has gone from 7.9% to 11.5%, which ranks 10th.
Whether it is backs like D’Andre Swift, receivers like Luther Burden or even the tight ends, the Bears are dangerous after the catch, ranking ninth in YAC since Week 2. The Packers must continue to tackle well on Sunday as they have in most games outside of the Falcons debacle.
More than just that though, they must cut down on busted coverages which caused them issues in the home opener.
Gannon mentioned before the Atlanta game that communication would be tested with the Lambeau Field crowd noise, and there were multiple plays where the likes of Drake London were left open and turned it into huge gains.
Brandon Cisse and Keisean Nixon will be tested as tacklers by Johnson’s outside zone run scheme, on screens and also need to ensure they are not cutting any receivers loose in the secondary. Green Bay’s defense must be fundamentally sound on Sunday.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 3 things on Packers defense vs. Bears offense: Green Bay must limit YAC
